WSU computer model uses Flathead County to examine fire policies
WSU computer model uses Flathead County to examine fire policies
12 October 2013
published by http://missoulian.com
USA — Just as firefighters use hand tools, bulldozers and aircraft at a forest fire, land managers need a mix of methods to plan for wildfire defense.
A computer model from Washington State University shows how different strategies play out sometimes in counterintuitive ways. For example, adding highly restrictive zoning rules to new homes in the forest turned out to be less beneficial than applying more moderate rules.
The project used Flathead County as its test subject. Its software allowed researchers to observe how planning rule changes, homeowner education programs, climate change forecasts and forest management all combine to predict the risk that homes will burn down in a wildfire.
The model allows you to try different scenarios and see what the future might look like, said the WSU assistant professor who led the project, former Kalispell resident Travis Paveglio. You need to account for all of those things if you want to be a manager trying to effect change on one of those things.
Under Flathead Countys current land-use policies, residential home losses would increase
17-fold by 2059, according to the model. That represents a loss of $79 million in property value.
Moderate changes to the countys land-use policies, like enforcing existing rules calling for defensible space around forest homes, reduced that damage to a 10-fold increase in the model. Adding highly restrictive policies only reduced the increase to nine times, while spurring more community resistance.
The four-year project consumed a huge amount of data. Home values, forest characteristics, building codes, climate change forecasts, fine-detail maps and all the emergency management strategies of county, state, private and federal landowners got stirred in. The resulting stew needed a supercomputer at the U.S. Forest Services Fire Science Lab in Missoula to analyze.
We want to distill down a very complex model to something decision-makers can utilize, said Tony Prato, a retired University of Missouri natural resources professor who also worked on the project. It wont get used if its complicated.
Thats tricky in a place like Flathead County, Prato said. Plum Creek Timber Co. can use commercial harvesting to change forest conditions around peoples homes, but Glacier National Park cannot. Some residents welcome government assistance to thin hazard trees on their land, while others will order the fire truck to go away during a forest fire.
We want to be able to show a planning and zoning board there are some things you might be able to do to reduce that risk, Prato said of the model. Or to a forest manager if you can thin out your properties, that would be a factor that reduces wildfire risk. Everybodys looking at having fewer resources in the future. This would target the areas that have higher risk, so you can put your money where it has the greatest potential for reducing wildfire risk.
The project now only focuses on Flathead Countys wildfire risk and factors. But Paveglio and Prato hope it can be turned into a software package any county or region could use to improve its community safety. The National Science Foundation has extended its funding of the project for a fifth year to carry on the work.
Thats good news in Missoula County, where a 2013 wildfire season nearly reached the residential border of Lolo.
The use of scientists to give predictions what a fire will do under best and worst-case scenarios has been around for a very long time, said Missoula Deputy Disaster and Emergency Services Coordinator Adriane Beck. But to apply that to fuel mitigation is a relatively new concept. Thats new technology that could have quite a bit of benefit.
For example, Missoula County is applying for a Federal Emergency Management Administration grant for fuel mitigation work that requires a cost-benefit analysis. It must show if the county spends $1,000 on mitigation, it would protect $1,000 worth of property.
Were trying to figure out a way to fill in that box, Beck said. This kind of technology would be kind of exciting.
