El Nino conditions likely to continue into early 2007

El Nino conditions likely to continueinto early 2007

10 November 2006

published by www.antara.co.id

Indonesia — During November-March, the conditions over most of Malaysiaand Indonesia were expected to be drier than average asEl Nino conditions werelikely to continue into early 2007, according to the US National Oceanographicand Atmospheric Agency (NOAA).

“Global effects that can be expected during November-March includedrier-than-average conditions over most of Malaysia, Indonesia, some of theU.S.-affiliated islands in the tropical North Pacific, northern South Americaand southeastern Africa, and wetter-than-average conditions over equatorial EastAfrica, central South America (Uruguay, northeastern Argentina, and southernBrazil) and along the coasts of Ecuador and northern Peru,” the NOAA saidin a statement made available to ANTARA on Friday (11/10).

In October, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was negative for the sixthconsecutive month. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies areconsistent with the early stages of El Nino in the tropical Pacific, the agencystated.

Equatorial Pacific SST anomalies greater than +0.5?C were observed in most ofthe equatorial Pacific, with anomalies exceeding +1.0 C between 170 E and 145?Wand between 130?W and the South American coast, it said.

The latest SST departures in the Nino regions are all near +1.0. Beginning inFebruary the basin-wide upper ocean heat content increased, and since earlyApril positive anomalies have been observed. Since early Julyweaker-than-average low-level equatorial easterly winds have been observedacross most of the equatorial Pacific.

Over the past several months most of the statistical and coupled model forecastshave trended towards warmer conditions in the tropical Pacific through theNorthern Hemisphere winter.

The latest NCEP (National Center for Environment Prediction) climate forecastsystem (CFS) predictions indicate El Nino conditions for the remainder of 2006and into the North Hemisphere spring (South Hemisphere fall) 2007.

More than two-thirds of the other statistical and coupled model predictions alsoindicate El Nino conditions during the same period, according to the agency.

Typical El Nino effects are likely to develop over North America during theupcoming winter season, including warmer-than-average temperatures over westernand central Canada, and over the western and northern United States.

While, wetter-than-average conditions are likely to develop over portions of theU.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, and drier-than-average conditions in the OhioValley and the Pacific Northwest, the US-based NOAA’s Weather Forecast Servicepredicted.

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