GFMC: Drought Warning for Indonesia but no El Niño expected: 21 February 2001
Drought Warning for Indonesia but no El Niñoexpected
21 February 2001
According the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) different rainfall forecasts are made for insular SE Asia for the first quarter of 2001.
According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) the forecasted global precipiation for three months starting 1 January 2001 shows a strong reduction of rainfall in Indonesia (Fig.1).
Fig.1. Mean precipitation anomaly forecasted by the ECMWF
The Sea-Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies forecast is given in Figure 2.
Fig.2. SST anomalies forecasted for the period January to March 2001. Source: ECMWF.
The El Niño outlook given by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) indicates that the wet La Niña conditions will continue. Original text from the CPC website:
“Cold episode (La Niña) conditions are expected to continue through the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter and into the NH spring of 2001, followed by near-normal conditions during the NH summer of 2001.
Based on current conditions in the tropical Pacific, on the NCEP SST predictions, and on results from historical studies on the effects of cold episodes, we expect wetter-than-normal conditions to prevail over Indonesia, northern Australia, and southern Africa during the remainder of the NH winter. Over the United States warmer-than-normal conditions are expected along the southern tier of states from southern California eastward to Florida, while cooler-than-average conditions are likely over western and central Canada and in the upper Midwest and Great Lakes.”
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