First half of 2017 was Earth’s second hottest year on record
First half of 2017 was Earth’s second hottest year on record
28 July 2017
published by http://www.fireandrescue.co
USA –
June 2017 was the third-hottest June ever recorded, the 41st June in a row and the 390th consecutive month that saw the average global temperature rise above the 20th century average. Furthermore, the first six months of 2017 were the second-hottest January-to-June ever recorded. This means that 2017 is on pace to be the second-hottest year since global temperature data first started being recorded in 1880. According to scientists with the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the average global temperature in June 2017 was about 0,64 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average of 15,5 degrees Celsius. June 2016 was the hottest yet, and June 2015 was the second hottest. The average global temperature from January to June 2017 was 0,91 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average of 13,5 degrees Celsius, NOAA reports, just 0,16 degrees Celsius lower than the record set in 2016. Joe Romm of ThinkProgress reported that these numbers have climate scientists particularly alarmed, as they come in a year when there was no El Niño event. Both 2015 and 2016 set new records, for instance, and a strong El Niño was partially to blame in each year.
Normally, the hottest years on record occur when the underlying human-caused global warming trend gets a temporary boost from an El Niños enhanced warming in the tropical Pacific, Romm writes. This matters because when a month or a six-month period sees record high global temperatures in the absence of an El Niño, that is a sign that the underlying global warming trend is stronger than ever. As Romm noted earlier this year, 2017 already set a remarkable new record for global warming in March, the first month to exceed the 19812010 average by a full one degree Celsius despite there being no El Niño event.
Climatologist Michael Mann told ThinkProgress, As if it wasnt shocking enough to see three consecutive record-breaking years, in 2014, 2015, and 2016, for the first time on record, were now seeing near-record temperatures even in the absence of the El Niño boost that the previous record year benefited from. Mann added that the NOAA data so far in 2017 serve as a reminder that climate change has not, despite the insistence of climate contrarians, paused or even slowed down.
An international team of climate researchers from the US, South Korea and the UK has developed a new wildfire and drought prediction model for southwestern North America. Extending far beyond the current seasonal forecast, this study published in the journal Scientific Reports could benefit the economies with a variety of applications in agriculture, water management and forestry.
Over the past 15 years, California and neighboring regions have experienced heighteneddrought conditions and an increase inwildfire numbers with considerable impacts on human livelihoods, agriculture, and terrestrial ecosystems. This new research shows that in addition to a discernible contribution from natural forcings and human-induced global warming, the large-scale difference between Atlantic and Pacific ocean temperatures plays a fundamental role in causing droughts, and enhancing wildfire risks.
“Our results document that a combination of processes is at work. Through an ensemble modeling approach, we were able to show that without anthropogenic effects, the droughts in the southwestern United States would have been less severe,” says co-author Axel Timmermann, Director of the newly founded IBS Center for Climate Physics, within the Institute for Basics Science (IBS), and Distinguished Professor at Pusan National University in South Korea. “By prescribing the effects of man-made climate change and observed global ocean temperatures, our model can reproduce the observed shifts in weather patterns and wildfire occurrences.”
Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2017-07-atlanticpacific-ocean-temperature-difference-fuels.html#jCpAn international team of climate researchers from the US, South Korea and the UK has developed a new wildfire and drought prediction model for southwestern North America. Extending far beyond the current seasonal forecast, this study published in the journal Scientific Reports could benefit the economies with a variety of applications in agriculture, water management and forestry.
Over the past 15 years, California and neighboring regions have experienced heighteneddrought conditions and an increase inwildfire numbers with considerable impacts on human livelihoods, agriculture, and terrestrial ecosystems. This new research shows that in addition to a discernible contribution from natural forcings and human-induced global warming, the large-scale difference between Atlantic and Pacific ocean temperatures plays a fundamental role in causing droughts, and enhancing wildfire risks.
“Our results document that a combination of processes is at work. Through an ensemble modeling approach, we were able to show that without anthropogenic effects, the droughts in the southwestern United States would have been less severe,” says co-author Axel Timmermann, Director of the newly founded IBS Center for Climate Physics, within the Institute for Basics Science (IBS), and Distinguished Professor at Pusan National University in South Korea. “By prescribing the effects of man-made climate change and observed global ocean temperatures, our model can reproduce the observed shifts in weather patterns and wildfire occurrences.”
Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2017-07-atlanticpacific-ocean-temperature-difference-fuels.html#jCp
