Indonesia — The impact of El Nino in the September-November period in 2009 is expected to include the continuation of drier-than-average conditions in Indonesia and enhanced precipitation in the west-central tropical Pacific Ocean, according to NOAA.
Current conditions, trends, and model forecasts favored the continued development of a weak-to-moderate strength El Nino into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2009, with the likelihood of at least a moderate strength El Nino during the winter 2009-10, according to an e-mailed press statement of US-based NOAA`s National Weather Service received by ANTARA News recently.
According to NOAA, El Nino is expected to strengthen and last through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-2010.
A weak El Nino continued during August 2009, as sea surface temperature (SST) remained above-average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Subsurface oceanic heat content (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean) anomalies continued to reflect a deep layer of anomalous warmth between the ocean surface and the thermocline, particularly in the central Pacific.
“Enhanced convection over the western and central Pacific abated during the month, but the pattern of suppressed convection strengthened over Indonesia,” according to the statement.
These oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect an ongoing weak El Nino. A majority of the model forecasts for the Nino-3.4 SST index suggest El Nino will reach at least moderate strength during the Northern Hemisphere fall (3-month Nino-3.4 SST index of +1.0 degree Celsius or greater).
Many model forecasts even suggest a strong El Nino (3-month Nino-3.4 SST index in excess of +1.5 degree Celsius) during the fall and winter, but current observations and trends indicate that El Nino will most likely peak at moderate strength.
Therefore, current conditions, trends, and model forecasts favor the continued development of a weak-to-moderate strength El Nino into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2009, with the likelihood of at least a moderate strength El Nino during the winter 2009-10, according to NOAA`s El Nino Advisory.
Indonesia is currently experiencing the El Nino-induced drought, which among other things, has caused failures of some crop harvests, forest and peat fires, and water shortage in some regions.