RED2
DeathKnell for the Kyoto Treaty
TheIndependent (London), 3 December 2003
ByMichael Mccarthy
Fifteenyears of international effort to combat climate change appeared doomed lastnight after Russia said it would not ratify the Kyoto protocol, the world treatyon global warming.
Russianratification is necessary for the treaty to take effect. Andrei Illarionov, asenior economic adviser to President Vladimir Putin, said in a surpriseannouncement in Moscow that Russia was refusing to sign the agreement, becauseto do so would threaten the country’s economic growth.
Thedecision means the collapse of the mechanism, agonisingly constructed bythousands of officials from more than 150 countries over a decade and a half,for the world to try to deal with its greatest threat.
UnitedNations scientists now predict that global average temperatures may rise by upto 6°C by the end of the century in a profound climatic destabilisation thatwill result in fiercer storms and rising sea levels.
In largeareas of the world, agriculture may become impossible; other parts may becomeuninhabitable because of flooding, hurricanes, increased disease, or thedisappearance of the land. This will take place while the earth’s population isrising towards 10 billion or more.
Ironically,Mr Illarionov’s announcement coincided with the publication of a UN reportsuggesting that skiing would soon be impossible in many European winter resortsbecause rising temperatures are leading to the disappearance of snow.
Althoughdiplomats were trying last night to clarify the status of the Russianannouncement, its unequivocal nature is the clearest sign that Moscow sees toomany drawbacks in the pact to limit emissions of the greenhouse gases,principally carbon dioxide from motor vehicles and electricity generation, whichare causing the atmosphere to heat.
Sincethe treaty was agreed in December 1997, 120 countries including Britain haveratified it, but its fate has hung by a Russian thread since President GeorgeBush, the oilman son of an oilman father, withdrew the US from it in March 2001,also alleging a threat to economic competitiveness.
To takeeffect, the treaty has to be ratified by nations responsible for 55 per cent ormore of the greenhouse gas emissions of the industrialised countries in 1990. Inthe absence of the US, the world’s biggest emitter with 25 per cent of thetotal, this could not be achieved without the Russian contribution of 17 percent.
MrIllarionov did not mince his words when he made his announcement after a meetingbetween President Putin and European businessmen. “In its current form,this protocol cannot be ratified,” he said. “The Kyoto protocol placessignificant limitations on the economic growth of Russia. It’s impossible toundertake responsibilities that place serious limits on the country’sgrowth.”
Thechances of the protocol being substantially renegotiated to satisfy MrIllarionov are nil, so it is in its current form that it will stand or fall.
At theoutset, Russia was confidently expected to ratify, but in the past 18 monthsRussian ministers and officials had raised increasing concerns by a series ofwill-we, won’t-we statements. A decision had been expected next spring after theRussian elections.
Therehave been rumours over the past few months that the Americans have been puttingpressure on the Russians to pull out of Kyoto. American withdrawal meant theloss of one of Kyoto’s biggest attractions for the Russians – the chance to sellto the US, for billions of dollars, their notional surplus emissions ofgreenhouse gases, brought about by the collapse of Russian heavy industry in the1990s.
Thisyear has produced new evidence of a rapidly changing and destabilising climate.India, Sri Lanka and the US have registered record high temperatures, rainfalland tornadoes; Europe has seen record heatwaves, unprecedented forest fires andgreat rivers, such as the Po in Italy, reduced to a trickle.
