Russia: Ecological and Economic Evaluation of the Consequences of Catastrophic Fires in the Russian Far East (IFFN No. 22 – April 2000)

3. Ecological and Economic Estimation of the Forest Fire Damages

The estimation of forest fire damage bears a lot of methodical complexities therefore there are no universally standardized methods of damage assessment. We estimated the fire damage according to The Express Methods of an Ecological-Economic Evaluation of Fire Damage, developed in 1977 by the Far East Research Institute, Khabarovsk, and the Instructions for Fire Damage Determination, ratified by the Federal Forestry Service of Russia (Order ? 53 03.04.98).

Thus, the damage estimates include not only the direct loss of marketable resources, but also equivalent environmental losses with regard to forest ecosystem formation and functions. As a result the general fire damage of 1998 in the Khabarovsk Territory were in the range of 4.5 to 6.0 billion rubles (equivalent to ca. $US 1.0 billion). This damage considers the state of wood damage for the first year. Taking into account the dynamics of tree mortality and an expected increase of damages up to 2-3 times in the next three years the losses will increase to ca. 8-9 billion rublesl. The increase of wood losses during the next 2-3 years will take place due to gradually accelerating mortality of fire-damaged trees and the inevitable intensive outbreak of insects and diseases, particularly wood-boring and bark beetles, fungi).

It is important to note, that significant tree mortality was due to the long-lasting drought which resulted in high-intensity stand replacement fires, burning of the humus/litter layer down to the mineral soil, and the development of crown fires in fir stands and peat forests (organic Sphagnurn terrain). In the latter two forest types the tree mortality was complete (100 %). Forests burned by surface fires will undergo an increase of mortality during the next two years and reach more than 90% of the standing volume. Out of the total damaged forest no more than 40 million m3 of timber can be immediately salvaged.. Considering the restricted transport availability and potential opportunity of development for the next 3 years about 15 million m3 can be salvaged.

Except the direct losses of arboreal raw resources the significant losses of animal resources are doubtless. According to data of All-Russian Research Institute of Hunting the loss of squirrels, stoats and musk deer reaches 70-80 %, and roe deer, red deer, and wild boar will suffer losses of to 15-25 %. The direct damage of the hunting economy in 1998 reached about 70 million rubles.

The fires unconditionally influenced biodiversity. We believe that zoo-biodiversity was damaged essentially and in same places irreversibly, not only due to direct mortality or migration from the territory affected by fire, but also due to the destruction of food supply. For example, the depression of mouse rodents is inevitable because of (a) the loss of a food supply for predators, and (b) the loss of the forest production agents. It is possible to expect also, that at the first stage there will be an intensive change of the composition of the entomofauna due to the outbreak of secondary pests and fungal flora. At present it is impossible to evaluate everything. We also believe that the fires were fatal for many populations of animals, including the spawning of salmon in the Amur river.

The complete loss of forest production capacity of a part of forest lands can be referred to direct losses in forestry and indirect results of fires. About 40 % of the burned-over land area are on the territory of traditional aboriginal minorities of the Far North which completely lost the traditional resource base. The influence of fires also reached the vast territories Zabaikalia and Yakutia which were affected by extremely high smoke pollution involving increased human morbidity and decrease of photosynthetically active radiation. The area in which bio-production processes were affected by the indirect effects of fire is in the magnitude of 100 million ha.

On an area of 1.5 million ha of the burned forest 60 % of the standing trees are dead and 40 % damaged by fires, i.e., the loss of live phytomass (only arboreal) is more than 100 milion m 3. More than 900,000 ha completely lost their carbon deposition function.

As a result of a fire there was single carbon emission of about 60 million t. And the emission is not compensated by photosynthetic activity due to destruction of stand. The regeneration of this function will be very slow in accordance with forest regeneration. Due to complete humus combustion and deep burn-out of soil ca. 200-300,000 ha of forests are transformed and the regeneration and carbon sequestration function is destroyed. It is also important to note that the processes of post-fire decomposition (tree mortality, etc.) will stimulate carbon emission from 3 up to 10 t/ha of carbon annually. Since the ability of a alive forest to act as a sink of 0.6-0.8 t/ha of carbon the fire-affected sites will remain to be carbon sources for the next decade.

The dynamics of the decomposition of fire-damaged trees show that burned trunks are gradually destroyed over a rather long time period (a decade and more) and remain standing even on mountain slopes. Remaining organic materials protect the soil after fire, but such sites become susceptible to a second fire and represent a major problem for forest restoration works.

4. Carbon Emission from Forest Fires

The influence of forest fires on carbon flux to the atmosphere is determined by two basic processes, (a) the physico-chemical process of releasing carbon in the form of gaseous compounds and aerosols by combustion, and (b)the biological process of slow release of carbon as a result of biological destruction and decomposition of plants killed by fire but not consumed (post-fire emission); this process may last up to several decades.

In order to assess the carbon emission as a result of forest fires it is necessary to know the phytomass consumed by fire and the amount of dead phytomass remaining on site after the fire.

Basic data

I. General: Forested area affected by fire in 1998

Total area burned 2,201,800 ha

thereof:

surface fires: 1,997,600 ha (88 %)
crown fires: 242,200 (11 %)
peat fires: 22,600 ha (1 %).

II. Phytomass of the burnt organic material under different kinds of fires (t/ha dry weight)

Surface fire: 12 t/ha
Crown fire: 30 t/ha
Peat fire: 120 t/ha

III. Phytomass of tree dead organic matter in fire-damaged stands (t/ha dry weight)

After surface fire: 13.0
After crown fire: 51.0
After peat fire: 33.0

Estimation of fire carbon emission

The release of carbon from fire is estimated using the formula:

G = k M, t

Where
k = 0.5 – constant quotient representing the average content of carbon in forest fuels (FF);
M – mass of burnt FF (t)

The total mass of burnt FF is determined by summarizing the burnt fuel loads from all fire types. The burnt mass is determined as product of the area affected by fire and the burnt mass per ha.

Hence, at mass: M = 1937.6 ´ 12 + 242.2 ´ 30 + 22 ´ 120 = 33,157,000 t the fire carbon emission will be:

G = 0.5 ´ 33,157,000 = 16,578,500 t

Evaluation of post-fire carbon emissions

The scales of carbon emission after fire estimate under the formula:

Where
k = 0.5 – quotient of conversion of organic substance mass into carbon
t = 25 – duration of forest regeneration period of burnt-out areas (years)
T = 10 – duration of destruction period of dead trees (years)
P – mass (dry weight) of annual tree mortality after fire (t)

The mass of annual tree mortality is determined by the sum of phytomass of dead trees from all types of fires. The mass of tree mortality according to the fire type is equal to the product of the area affected by fire and the dry weight of dead trees per ha, and will be equal:

P = 1937.6 ´ 13 + 242.8 ´ 51 + 22 ´ 33 = 38,298,000 ha

and emission after fire:

R = 0.5 ´ 25 ´ 38,298,000: 10 = 47,872,500 t

Thus, the total carbon emissions of forest fires are:

S = 16,578,5 + 47,872,500 = 64,451,000 t

 

5. Forecast of Long-Term Consequences After Fire

A prediction of the long-term consequences of catastrophic fires is based on studies of post-fire dynamic processes which were conducted over many years. Following possible negative transformations can be expected:

1. Change of the structure of forest lands and the state of biotopes and habitats. About 30 % of the burned area will loose its forest character for a rather long period and will turn in moors, stone-detritus, grass-shrubs and shrub waste lands within the next 20-30 years. The regeneration of forests on the remaining area (70 %) in the average will go through a reproduction period of 15 to 20 years. The possible pathways will be as follows: will take place about 10 % of the forest lands will be regenerated naturally by coniferous species (mainly by larch); 50 % will be regenerated by soft-leaved species with regeneration of coniferous (basic species) within the next 60-80 years.

2. The ecosystem productivity, particularly the arboreal biomass, will decrease as compared with the initial condition at a minimum by 30%.

3. Increase of fuel accumulation due collapsing trees and rapid spread of grass will increase the wildfire potential. A recurrence of fires in intervals of 5 to 8 years is predicted.

4. The loss of forest in water catchment basins up to the limits of critical cover (50-70 %) will result in essential or irreversible transformations of hydrothermal regimes with consequences on and possible losses of spawning places of salmon and other valuable fish species.

5. General impoverishment of biodiversity will take place due to the direct destruction of unique and rare flora and fauna on burned-over areas passed and subsequent impoverishment of the composition of the post-fire phytocenoses.

6. The quality and topology of distribution of food resources for wildlife will be changed and will have long-term consequences on population dynamics. The depression of wildlife populations will also negatively affect forest utilization.

6. Global Consequences of Catastrophic Fires

There is no doubt that a regional catastrophe of such scale essentially influences global ecological, social and economic processes. However, the role and degree of these consequences, and also the threshold sizes of the planetary significance of regional stresses, practically are not yet investigated.

In the case of the 1998 fire disasters in the Far East of Russia the following impacts must be noted which have transboundary impacts or are of global significance: (a) during almost the whole vegetative period of 1998 a dense near-ground smoke layer covered a large territory of more than 100 million ha, including a parts of China and North Korea, with climatic effects being similar to a “nuclear winter”; (b) negative impact on the carbon pool; (c) impoverishment of biodiversity and number of populations of migratory species (both land and water); (d) transport of large amounts of ash into the Okhotsk Sea and the Japanese Sea; (e) influence on variability of climate parameters in the Northeastern part of the Asian continent; (f) negative influence on wood resources and trade associated with negative socio-economic impacts in countries of the Asia-Pacific Region; (g) loss of natural heritage sites of international significance.

7. Measures of Rehabilitation and Damage Control in Fire-Affected Forest Lands

From the strategic point of view of fire disaster mitigation and rehabilitation of forest lands it is necessary to:

1. Concentrate first of all efforts not so much on reforestation, as an avoidance of the following catastrophe. With that end in view it is required to

2. reorganize the fire management system;

• provide the fire services, the forest service and other agencies involved in fire prevention and the forest enterprises with modern state-of-the-art fire fighting equipment;
• carry out fire-prevention measures as integrated element of forestry in accordance with scientific norms;
• improve airborne forest fire monitoring and ground-based fire detection and patrolling;
• increase the regular budgets for fire prevention measures.

3. Urgently speed up salvage logging operation in burned-over forests;

4. Utilize to the full extent the regeneration potential from unburned forest fragments within the next five years;

5. Establish plantations only in accessible sites by using fast-growing species in order to speed up carbon sequestration;

6. Concentrate and prioritize planning and implementation of forest cultures in protection forests in water catchment regions and unburned forest fragments with a high protective value for habitat rehabilitation of rare and the most valuable wildlife animal species.

7. Realize biotechnical measures for the rehabilitation of fire-affected habitats and the regeneration of populations of rare and valuable animals.

 

Dimitri F. Efremov and Mikhail A. Sheshukov
Far East Forestry Research Institute
71, Volochaevskaya Street
Khabarovsk, 680 030
Russia

Fax: ++7-4212-216798

 

Additional information on the area affected by fire in the Far East region is given in the image below.

Fig.2. Satellite composite of the area affected by fire from 10 April 1998 to 20 October 1998 in the Far East / Sakhalin region using NOAA/AVHRR 12A data. (Copyright: 1999 Computer Center Tohoku University, Japan, kudoh@cc.tohoku.ac.jp)

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IFFN No. 22