el nino

ElNiño Forecast

17May 2006


The Climate Prediction Center’ (CPC),established by the National Weather Service (NWS), provides operationalpredictions of climate variability, real-time monitoring of climate and therequired data bases, and assessments of the origins of major climate anomalies.The products cover time scales from a week to seasons, extending into the futureas far as technically feasible, and cover the land, the ocean, and theatmosphere, extending into the stratosphere. The CPC is best known for itsclimate forecasts based on El Niño and La Niña conditions in the tropicalPacific.

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to prevail during the next 3-6months.

The current patterns of anomalous ocean temperatures areconsistent in indicating a return to ENSO-neutral conditions in the tropicalPacific. During April SSTs were close to average at most locations betweenIndonesia and 90ºW, which is reflected in the near zero departures observed inall of the Niño regions, except for Niño 1+2. During the month, negative SSTdepartures developed in the extreme eastern equatorial Pacific, which is areversal from conditions observed during February-March.

During April above-average precipitation was observed overportions of Indonesia and northern Australia, while below-average precipitationwas observed over the central equatorial Pacific and the eastern tropicalPacific between the equator and 20ºN. Slightly stronger-than-average low-level(850-hPa) easterly winds persisted over the central equatorial Pacific, andanomalous upper-level (200-hPa) cyclonic circulation centers were observed inboth hemispheres. Although these atmospheric features are lingering effects ofLa Niña, they are weaker than in previous months. Since February the basin-wideupper ocean heat content has increased, becoming slightly positive in April.Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic features signal the demise of La Niñaand a return to ENSO-neutral conditions.

Tropical Pacific SeaSurface Temperature:


click on scene to start animation

Weekly averaged sea surface temperatures (top, °C) and anomalies (bottom, °C) for the past twelve weeks. SST analysis is the optimum interpolation (OI) analysis, while anomalies are departures from the adjusted OI climatology (Reynolds and Smith 1995, J. Climate, 8, 1571-1583).

(source: ClimatePrediction Center)

 

Global Tropical SeaSurface Temperature:


click on scene to start animation

Weekly averaged sea surface temperatures (top, °C) and anomalies (bottom, °C) for the past twelve weeks.  SST analysis is the optimum interpolation (OI) analysis, while anomalies are departures from the adjusted OI climatology (Reynolds and Smith 1995, J. Climate, 8, 1571-1583).

(source: ClimatePrediction Center)


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