The Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS) is a contribution of “The Fire Behavior Research Work Unit”, Missoula (Montana USA). The broad area component of the Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS) generates maps of selected fire weather and fire danger components.
Fire Danger (Potential) is a normalized adjective rating class across different fuel models and station locations. It is based on information provided by local station managers about the primary fuel model, fire danger index selected to reflect staffing level, and climatological class breakpoints. Low danger (class 1) is green and extreme potential (class 5) is red.
Dead fuel moisture responds solely to ambient environmental conditions and is critical in determining fire potential. Dead fuel moistures are classed by timelag. A fuel’s timelag is proportional to its diameter and is loosely defined as the time it takes a fuel particle to reach 2/3’s of its way to equilibrium with its local environment. Dead fuels in NFDRS have four timelag classes:
1-hr: Fine flashy fuels, less than 1/4″ (< 0.63 cm) diameter. Responds quickly to weather changes. Computed from observation time temperature, humidity and cloudiness.
10-hr: 1/4 to 1″ (0.63 to 2.54 cm) diameters. Computed from observation time temperature, humidty, and cloudiness, or may be a standard set of “10-Hr Fuel Sticks” that are weighed as part of the fire weather observation.
100-hr: 1 to 3″ (2.54 to 7.62 cm) diameter. Computed from 24 hour average boundary condition composed of day length, hours of rain, and daily temperature/humidity ranges.
1000-hr: 3 to 6″ (7.62 to 15.24 cm) diameter. Computed from a 7-day average boundary condition composed of day length, hours of rain, and daily temperature/humidity ranges.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) is a soil/duff drought index that ranges from 0 (no drought) to 800 (extreme drought) and is based on a soil capacity of 8 inches of water. Factors in the index are maximum daily temperature, daily precipitation, antecedent precipitation, and annual precipitation. KBDI = 0 – 200: Soil moisture and large class fuel moistures are high and do not contribute much to fire intensity. Typical of spring dormant season following winter precipitation. KBDI = 200 – 400: Typical of late spring, early growing season. Lower litter and duff layers are drying and beginning to contribute to fire intensity. KBDI = 400 – 600: Typical of late summer, early fall. Lower litter and duff layers actively contribute to fire intensity and will burn actively. KBDI = 600 – 800: Often associated with more severe drought with increased wildfire occurrence. Intense, deep burning fires with significant downwind spotting can be expected. Live fuels can also be expected to burn actively at these levels.
For further information on the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) by Florida’s Division of Forestry / Forest Protection Bureau please refer to Keetch-Byram Drought Index Revisited: Prescribed Fire Applications.
Operational Significant Event Imagery (OSEI) (2 October 2000)
The following significant events were identified by Satellite Analysis Branch meteorologists and reviewed by the OSEI support team:
NESDIS/OSEI NOAA-12 AVHRR HRPT satellite images, 2 October 2000
A heat signature (red) and smoke (gray) are visible from the Cyril Ballpark Road Fire burning near Marlow, Oklahoma.
GeoMAC Wildland Fire Support The GeoMAC (Geospatial Multi-Agency Coordination Group) team has produced an internet based mapping application which allows firefighting coordination centers and incident command teams to access online maps of current fire locations and perimeters. Fire perimeter data is updated daily based upon input from incident intelligence sources, GPS data, IR imagery from fixed wing and satellite platforms. The fire maps also have relational databases in which the user can display information on individual fires such as name of the fire, current acreage and other fire status information. Additional data layers including fuel types, aircraft hazard maps, links to remote weather station data and other critical fire analysis information are currently being added to the GeoMAC application.
An example of GeoMAC Wildfire Information on forest fires in Idaho and Montana.
The right image shows a screen shot about the fire size at the Clear Creek Complex, the biggest wildfire in Idaho.
Additional Information to the Clear Creek Complex (1 October 2000) The Clear Creek Complex, 12 miles west of Salmon, is the largest fire in Idaho, and has an area 216,961 acres. It is to 85% contained. The estimated date of full containment on the Clear Creek Fire is aprrox. 10 October 2000. Currently, 523 people are working at this fire.
A view from the helicopter over parts of the burned area from the Clear Creek Complex.
The fire base camp two weeks ago.
Clear Creek Incident – Wildfire Suppression Rehabilitation Plan
The objective of fire rehabilitation is to mitigate suppression damage of wildfire and restore disturbed areas to as near pre-fire conditions as possible. Damaged meadows and riparian areas and steep slopes with high erosion potential should be prioritized to receive immediate rehabilitation. Several medium-sized track-mounted or rubber-tired excavators and hand crews will be needed to accomplish the rehabilitation work.
General rehabilitation includes: clearing drainage ditches and lead-out ditches of slash and debris, reshaping damaged segments of road near log decks, and watering and grading the road to repair the surface damaged by heavy equipment and excessive traffic.
Standard treatment for rehabilitation of safety zones includes: pulling in topsoil from berms around the perimeter of the safety zone; spreading the recovered topsoil over the disturbed area; distributing slash and limbs and tops from felled and culled trees over the topsoil; and piling and burning excess slash.
As part of fire protection efforts during the Clear Creek fire, a fuel break was constructed along the Salmon River Ridge road above the municipal watershed for the City of Salmon. The work created a large amount of felled trees and high stumps that hamper the effectiveness of the fuel break and impede suppression rehabilitation efforts. Therefore, the high stumps will be crushed or cut flush to the ground and most of the felled trees will be removed from along the fuel break by the equipment performing suppression rehabilitation work.
Left: Hydrologists, geologists and forester discuss the procedure of a creek rehabilitation.
Bulldozer went through the stream and destroyed the natural stream.
Right: On a very steep slope a bulldozer built a fireline. This area is very sensitive, due to the very high erosion risk.
Left: The topsoil from berms around the perimeter of a safety zone have to be pulled back.
Right: A former forest road, which was rebuilt and re-seeded (front: green and brown), was again destroyed by a dozerline (back: white).
Dozerline rehabilitation may be delayed in some areas until salvageable timber is removed under the authority of a timber sale contract. Many areas impacted by dozerline have not yet been inventoried because fire is still actively burning. Specialized equipment and techniques may be necessary to rehabilitate some dozerline. A site-specific plan for each area, similar to the one written for the Mackinaw Creek restoration, will be completed and agreed upon prior to rehabilitation. Due to the number of miles of dozer and hand line that may require suppression rehabilitation and impending winter weather, the Incident Management Team and the Forest may not be able to complete rehabilitation measures this year, except on the highest priority areas.
Fire and Aviation Management Morning Report (3 October 2000) [conversion table] National Overview:
Preparedness Level II
One new large fire was reported in northeast Oklahoma in the Southern Area. Initial attack activity was moderate in California and the Southern Area and light elsewhere. One more day of hot and dry conditions in Texas and Oklahoma may challenge containment efforts on the large fires there. Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Oregon, Washington, California, Montana, Utah, Arizona, Colorado, Nebraska, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Texas.
A new fire was reported in the Southern area and five fires greater than 1,000 acres remain, one in the Northern Rockies area, one in the Eastern Great Basin area, two in the Southern area and one in the Northern California area.
Burned Area Emergency Rehabilitation 262,630 Acres Severely Burned
78 Rehabilitation Plan
Cost $31 Million
4,000 acres of mulching
21,000 acres of weed treatment
Over 78,000 acres being seeded
Over 400 miles of road drainage protection
68 miles of stream protection
Over 15,000 acres of intensive erosion control
Note: Access summary information for individual fires from the NIFC Incident Management Situation Report.
Resources and Statistics: Resources committed on 2 October 2000:
130 20 person crews, 28 helicopters, 132 engines, 1 air tankers, and 4,051 total personnel. Currently, there are 6 fires over 1,000 acres. The total number of acres burned this year is 219% of the ten-year average. The Fairfax Fire in northeast Oklahoma is a new fire.
Weather Outlook (3 October 2000)[conversion table] A RED FLAG WARNING IS POSTED IN WEST CENTRAL COLORADO FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS POSTED FOR THE ENTIRE STATE OF MISSISSIPPI FOR LOW FUEL MOISTURES.
High pressure will remain over Texas and Oklahoma bringing mostly sunny and dry conditions. High temperatures will be in the mid 80’s to upper 90’s. Winds will be southeast to southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Minimum relative humidity will be 30 to 40 percent in the east and 15 to 30 percent in the west.
For the west coast, the weak upper level low will linger off the southern California coast. Northern California and southern Oregon will be mostly sunny. Southern California will be partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms. High temperatures will be in the mid 60’s to near 80 in the mountains and along the coast, and in the 90’s to mid 100’s in the desert areas. Minimum relative humidity will be 10 to 20 percent in the driest areas and 20 to 40 percent elsewhere. Winds will be southeast to southwest at 10 to 15 mph inland and onshore, and 5 to 15 mph in the coastal basin. Northeast winds of 10 to 15 mph are expected across southern Oregon.
National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC)
NIFC Wildland Fire Update (3 October 2000) [conversion table]
Large fires in Texas and Oklahoma have burned several structures and continue to threaten others. One more day of dry and hot weather is expected in Oklahoma and Texas, challenging containment efforts on current large fires and keeping the fire danger extremely high for any new starts. In addition, Oregon, Washington, California, Montana, Utah, Arizona, Colorado, Nebraska, Arkansas and Mississippi are reporting very high to extreme fire conditions today. Hunters in these areas are encouraged to check local fire conditions before visiting public lands.
Large Wildland Fires and Large Fire Activity in the United States, 2 and 3 October 2000.
(Source: NIFC and US Forest Service)
27 September 2000Number of Wildland FiresArea burnt
Acresten year average 66,1203,128,669200079,9626,875,263 1999 75,159 4,787,401 1998 67,692 2,178,685 1997 54,610 2,753,973 199691,6275,860,507 1995 68,991 1,731,880 1994 61,486 3,683,509 1993 51,097 1,649,555 1992 79,222 1,751,747 1991 58,954 2,228,815 1990 60,333 4,574,036 1989 48,540 1,826,141 198869,6394,235,287
NIFC Wildland Fire Potential Assessment (7 September 2000 – 5 October 2000): ALASKA – Potential: Below normal. Temperatures have been below normal and precipitation has been above normal for the last four to six weeks. August temperatures were the coolest ever recorded for most of the Interior. The Fire Potential Index is low and Fine Fuel Moisture Code is being measured as low and very low throughout the Interior. Shorter days and colder temperatures will continue the below normal fire activity in September. NORTHWEST Potential: Normal to above normal. Temperatures have been normal and precipitation has been below normal in the area for the past month. Live fuel moistures are close to average in areas and have been measured at 79% in northeastern Oregon to 161% in northwestern Washington. 1000-hour dead fuel moistures have also been mostly average for this time of the year. Measurements range from 21% in northwestern Washington to 8% in southeastern Oregon. The Energy Release Component (ERC) is being measured at or above average in the west and above average in the eastern portions of the area. PDI (Palmer Drought Index) indicates severe drought conditions in eastern Oregon and extreme drought in central Washington. The long-range weather forecast calls for above normal temperatures and below average precipitation for most of the area. CALIFORNIA – Potential: Above normal. Temperatures have been normal in the north and above normal in the south. Precipitation has been below normal for the last 4 to 6 weeks and the recent rains could provide only short-term relief. Live fuel moistures in the north are still at critical levels at about 70% in the north. Live fuel moistures are being measured at around 50% to 70% in the south and east and up to 100% in the west. 1000-hour fuel moisture in most of the state is around 6% to 10%, which is below average. Predicted Santa Ana winds could be a factor in the next month. PDI indicates normal conditions in the north and severe and extreme drought in the central and southern areas. Long range forecasts calls for above normal temperatures. NORTHERN ROCKIES – Potential: Above normal. Precipitation has been below normal in much of the area and temperatures have been above normal. Live fuel moistures are being measured from the 50% to 120% and 1000 hour fuel moistures are generally between 10% to 20 % in the area. Though recent storms in northern Idaho and western Montana have brought some relief to large fire growth, the PDI indicates extreme and severe drought conditions exists in much of the area. Long-range weather forecasts call for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation in northwestern Idaho. GREAT BASIN – Potential: Normal to above normal. Temperatures have been above normal during the past month while precipitation has been below normal through the area. Live fuel moisture is ranging from 47% to 113% in Nevada and 51 to 170% in the Eastern Great Basin. 1000-hour fuel moisture is averaging 6% in Nevada and from 5% to 15% in the Eastern Great Basin. Cloudy skies, higher humidities and cooler temperatures have moderated fire conditions for the present. The PDI indicates that most of the region is in severe and extreme drought conditions except for southern Nevada. Long-range weather predicts normal to above normal temperatures and near normal precipitation. SOUTHWEST – Potential: Normal. Temperatures have been normal and precipitation has been normal to above normal. Live fuel moisture readings are normal in much of the area at 95% to 120%. 1000-hour fuel moisture levels are normal to above normal at 10% to 14% in Arizona and 10% to 18% in New Mexico. Palmer Drought Index (PDI) shows extreme drought conditions in Arizona and severe drought in central and western New Mexico. The long-range outlook indicates above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for the next 30 days. ROCKY MOUNTAIN – Potential: Normal to above normal. Temperatures were below normal to above normal and precipitation was normal to above normal for the last four to six weeks. Live fuel samples are below normal for much of the area, ranging from 95% in ponderosa pine to 70% to 90% in pinyon pine and juniper fuels. 1000-hour fuel moisture is around 6% to 10 % in the west and 11% to 15% in the east, which is slightly below normal. Normal monsoon moisture did not move far enough north to provide relief from the dry conditions in Wyoming and eastern South Dakota so large fire growth is anticipated in those areas. PDI indicates severe and moderate drought in most of the area. The long-range forecast calls for normal precipitation for Colorado. EASTERN – Potential: Normal. Temperatures and precipitation have been normal through much of the area for the last month. The 1000-hour fuels are currently ranging from 18% to 25% which is average for this time of year. Potential for any significant activity should be limited to the southern tier states. The PDI indicates that most areas are near normal or wetter than normal. Long-range climate forecasts call for normal temperatures. Below normal precipitation is predicted for the Great Lakes and above normal for the Eastern Seaboard. SOUTHERN – Potential: Normal to above normal. Temperatures have been below normal in Kentucky and Virginia and normal elsewhere. Precipitation has been below normal in most of the southern tier states. Live fuel moisture is being measured as low as 30% to 50% in Texas and Louisiana and at 120% to 180% elsewhere. 1000 hour dead fuel moisture is at 12% in Louisiana and is averaging 18% through much of the rest of the area. The PDI shows large portions of Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Georgia, and Florida and all of Alabama to be in drought conditions. The long-range outlook is calling for normal temperatures and precipitation for most of the area.
Temperatures and Precipitation reflect conditions over the past four to six weeks. The long-range forecast is for the next 30 days. Above and below normal is indicated above in the narrative, areas not mentioned fall in the climatological category which means there are equal chances of being below normal (33.3%), normal (33.3%) or above normal (33.3%).
Map describing the wildland fire potential, 7 September – 5 October 2000
National Weather Service Long-range, 30-day weather forecasts are predicting above-normal temperatures for the southern tier of states from southern California to Florida and throughout the Midwest (see 30 and 90-day forecast maps).
30 and 90-day temperature and precipitation forecast maps (September and September to November 2000)
(Source: National Weather Service)
Yellowstone burns yield clues to fire behavior (Environmental News Network, 2 October 2000)
Wildfires spark gains for loggers (Environmental News Network, 2 October 2000)
MISR Stereo Imaging Distinguishes Smoke from Cloud The purpose of NASA’s Earth Observatory is to provide a freely-accessible publication on the Internet where the public can obtain new satellite imagery and scientific information about our home planet. The focus is on Earth’s climate and environmental change. In particular, we hope our site is useful to public media and educators. Any and all materials published on the Earth Observatory are freely available for re-publication or re-use, except where copyright is indicated. We ask that NASA’s Earth Observatory be given credit for its original materials.
These views of western Alaska were acquired by the Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) on 25 June 2000. The images cover an area of about 150 kilometers x 225 kilometers, and have been oriented with north to the left. The left image is from the vertical-viewing (nadir) camera, whereas the right image is a stereo “anaglyph” that combines data from the forward-viewing 45-degree and 60-degree cameras. This image appears three-dimensional when viewed through red/blue glasses with the red filter over the left eye. It may help to darken the room lights when viewing the image on a computer screen.
The Yukon River is seen wending its way from upper left to lower right. A forest fire in the Kaiyuh Mountains produced the long smoke plume that originates below and to the right of image center. In the nadir view, the high cirrus clouds at the top of the image and the smoke plume are similar in appearance, and the lack of vertical information makes them hard to differentiate. Viewing the righthand image with stereo glasses, on the other hand, demonstrates that the scene consists of several vertically-stratified layers, including the surface terrain, the smoke, some scattered cumulus clouds, and streaks of high, thin cirrus. This added dimensionality is one of the ways MISR data helps scientists identify and classify various components of terrestrial scenes.
Remarks on Prescribed Burning
Fire is an important natural tool for ecosystem management. It can reduce dense vegetation improving wildlife habitat and lessening the potential for large, wildfire disasters. Land managers are directed to prepare a prescribed fire/burn plan for every area of public land that can burn. Some areas require total suppression while others will benefit from a wildland fire. Those areas that will benefit from a fire can be treated by a prescribed fire.
Especially, for the moment, in the southern and southeastern regions of the United States prescribed fire activities will be carried out in the following weeks and months. In this case, fire signals on satellite images can be traced back to this kind of land management activities.
In the Prescribed Fire Position Paper of the Forest Protection Bureau by the Division of Forestry in Florida, prescribed fire activity is described as a land management application that is essential to the practice of forestry, management of wildlife, preservation of endangered plant and animal species, improvement of range conditions and reduction of wildfire damage in the wildland/urban interface areas. While there is general public and landowner concern with increased smoke, reduced air quality, and liability; the general public and landowners benefit significantly from the reduction of devastating wildfire, improved wildlife habitat and forage, preservation of endangered and threatened plant and animal species, and improved management of forest resources. The prospect of severe reductions in the utilization of this management tool is of major concern to Florida’s natural resource managers and conservationists due to the subsequent loss of derived public and private benefits. They suggest the need for legislative attention.