GFMC: Forest Fires in the United States, 3 July 2000

The Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS) is a contribution of "The Fire Behavior Research Work Unit", Missoula (Montana USA). The broad area component of the Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS) generates maps of selected fire weather and fire danger components.

Fire Danger (Potential) is a normalized adjective rating class across different fuel models and station locations. It is based on information provided by local station managers about the primary fuel model, fire danger index selected to reflect staffing level, and climatological class breakpoints. Low danger (class 1) is green and extreme potential (class 5) is red.

Dead fuel moisture responds solely to ambient environmental conditions and is critical in determining fire potential. Dead fuel moistures are classed by timelag. A fuel's timelag is proportional to its diameter and is loosely defined as the time it takes a fuel particle to reach 2/3's of its way to equilibrium with its local environment. Dead fuels in NFDRS have four timelag classes:
1-hr: Fine flashy fuels, less than 1/4" (< 0.63 cm) diameter. Responds quickly to weather changes. Computed from observation time temperature, humidity and cloudiness.
10-hr: 1/4 to 1" (0.63 to 2.54 cm) diameters. Computed from observation time temperature, humidty, and cloudiness, or may be a standard set of "10-Hr Fuel Sticks" that are weighed as part of the fire weather observation.
100-hr: 1 to 3" (2.54 to 7.62 cm) diameter. Computed from 24 hour average boundary condition composed of day length, hours of rain, and daily temperature/humidity ranges.
1000-hr: 3 to 6" (7.62 to 15.24 cm) diameter. Computed from a 7-day average boundary condition composed of day length, hours of rain, and daily temperature/humidity ranges.



10-HR Fuel Moisture	100-HR Fuel Moisture	1000-HR Fuel Moisture

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) is a soil/duff drought index that ranges from 0 (no drought) to 800 (extreme drought) and is based on a soil capacity of 8 inches of water. Factors in the index are maximum daily temperature, daily precipitation, antecedent precipitation, and annual precipitation. KBDI = 0 - 200: Soil moisture and large class fuel moistures are high and do not contribute much to fire intensity. Typical of spring dormant season following winter precipitation. KBDI = 200 - 400: Typical of late spring, early growing season. Lower litter and duff layers are drying and beginning to contribute to fire intensity. KBDI = 400 - 600: Typical of late summer, early fall. Lower litter and duff layers actively contribute to fire intensity and will burn actively. KBDI = 600 - 800: Often associated with more severe drought with increased wildfire occurrence. Intense, deep burning fires with significant downwind spotting can be expected. Live fuels can also be expected to burn actively at these levels.
For further information on the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) by Florida's Division of Forestry / Forest Protection Bureau please refer to Keetch-Byram Drought Index Revisited: Prescribed Fire Applications.

NESDIS/OSEI NOAA-14 POES AVHRR HRPT satellite image, 28 & 29 June 2000
The Two Fork Fire started on Tuesday, 27 June, from a car crash. Winds gusting up to 30 miles per hour and temperatures around 100 °F on Wednesday caused the fire rapidly increased to over 100.000 acres (40.500 ha). The image on the left was made from NOAA 15 pass late Wednesday local time. The image on the right was made from NOAA 15 pass about 23 hours later on Thursday evening local time when only one small heat signature could be detected by the satellite. Officials said the fire was virtually out on Friday morning after burning an estimated 192.000 acres (78.000 ha).
(Source: NESDIS/OSEI)

Fire and Aviation Management Morning Report (29 June 2000)
Northwest Large Fires

Washington TWO FORK: This 192,000 acre (78.000 ha) fire burned northwest of Richland, Washington, near the U.S. Department of Energy Hanford Site and Saddle Mountain National Wildlife Refuge. Mop up and rehabilitation began yesterday. 73 structures (20 homes) were reported lost. 100 % of the work necessary to contain this fire has been completed. 271 people are assigned to this fire.

Oregon

LUG NUT: This 1,200 acre (485 ha) lightning caused fire is burning 22 miles (35 km) northeast of Fort Rock, Oregon on public lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management, Lakeview District. The fire is burning in the Squaw Ridge Lava Flow and Wilderness Study Area. 203 people are assigned to this fire.

Alaska Area Large Fires

NATLARATLEN RIVER: This 8,600 acre (3.500 ha) fire is burning 20 miles (31 km) north of Galena, Alaska, on public lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management, Galena Zone. The fire is burning in tundra and spruce vegetation. Crews will continue to check for hot spots and reinforce firelines. 90% of the work necessary to contain this fire has been completed. 74 people are assigned to this fire.

TOLOVANA DOME: This lightning ignited 700 acre (283 ha) fire is burning 60 (94 km) miles northwest of Fairbanks, Alaska, on public lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management, Tanana Zone. The fire is burning in black spruce and hardwoods. Crews continued to secure the fire’s perimeter and check for hot spots. 75% of the work necessary to contain this fire has been completed. 72 people are assigned to this fire.

BEARPAW MOUNTAIN: The 13,612 acre (5.500 ha) fire is burning 100 miles (160 km) southwest of Fairbanks, Alaska on public lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management, Tanana Zone. Fire activity increased with some warmer conditions. Firefighters continue to protect cabin sites. 21 people are assigned to this fire.

ZITZIANA: This lightning ignited 79,291 acre (32.000 ha) fire is burning 85 miles (136 km) west of Fairbanks on public lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management, Tanana Zone. Cabin protection and site assessments are continuing. The fire is burning in black spruce and hardwood vegetation. 24 people are assigned to this fire.

Western Great Basin Area Large Fires

Nevada RENO COMPLEX: This 18,035 acre (7.300 ha) lightning caused fire burned 10 miles (16 km) north of Reno on public lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management, Carson City Field Office. This complex consists of the Hungry, Turtle, Canoe, Jones Canyon and Antelope fires. 100% of the work necessary to contain this fire has been completed. 746 people are assigned to this fire. This will be the last report unless significant new activity is reported.

RAMSEY: This 5,500 acre (2.220 ha) fire is burning near Fernley, Nevada, on public lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management, Carson City Field Office. It is burning in grass, sagebrush, piñon pine and juniper vegetation types. The fire is burning in steep, rocky terrain. 30 % of the work necessary to contain this fire has been completed. 156 people are assigned to this fire.

EASTGATE: This 650 acre (263 ha) fire is burning 60 miles (94 km) east of Fallon on public lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management, Carson City Field Office. 50 % of the work necessary to contain this fire has been completed. 30 people are assigned to this fire.

KELLY CREEK: This 5,000 acre (2.200 ha) fire is burning 12 miles (20 km) northeast of Golconda, on public lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management, Winnemucca Field Office. Strong gusty winds combined with low relative humidities make controlling the fire difficult. Structures in the area are currently threatened. 150 people are assigned to this fire.

KENDLE TOO: This 1,000 acre (440 ha) lightning caused fire is burning 25 miles (40 km) southwest of Caliente, on public lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management, Ely Field Office. The fire is burning in pinyon pine, juniper and sagebrush vegetation types. The fire continues to be active because of strong winds and low relative humidities. 110 people are assigned to this fire.

EDWARDS CREEK: This 900 acre (364 ha) fire is burning 70 miles (112 km) east of Fallon, on public lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management, Carson City Field Office. The fire is burning actively in pinyon pine and juniper vegetation types. 50 % of the work necessary to contain this fire has been completed. 50 people are assigned to this fire.

Idaho
FLAT BROKE: This 1,000 acre (440 ha) fire burned 17 miles (27 km) south of Oreana. The fire is burning in a grazing allotment on public lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management, Lower Snake River District. 100 % of the work necessary to contain this fire has been completed. 42 people are assigned to this fire. This will be the last report unless significant new activity is reported.

5N3 CREEK: This 1,600 acre (650 ha) fire burned on the Idaho-Nevada border, south of Three Creek. The fire is burning on public lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management, Lower Snake River District. 100 % of the work necessary to contain this fire has been completed. 100 people are assigned to this fire. This will be the last report unless significant new activity is reported.

GRASSY HILLS: This 500 acre (220 ha) fire burned 15 (24 km) miles west of Roseworth. The fire is burning on public lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management, Lower Snake River District. 100 % of the work necessary to contain this fire has been completed. 28 people are assigned to this fire. This will be the last report unless significant new activity is reported.

KINYON: This 800 acre (323 ha) fire burned 5 miles (7 km) northwest of Roseworth. The fire is burning on public lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management, Lower Snake River District. 100 % of the work necessary to contain this fire has been completed. 31 people are assigned to this fire. This will be the last report unless significant new activity is reported.

CEDAR FIELD: This 1,800 acre (730 ha) fire is burning 10 miles (16 km) southwest of American Falls. The fire is burning in grass and sagebrush near the Massacre Rocks State Park on public lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management, Upper Snake River District. 50 % of the work necessary to contain this fire has been completed. 72 people are assigned to this fire.

Utah
RABBIT CREEK: This 1,250 acre (550 ha) fire is burning 36 miles (58 km) east of Logan, on public lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management, Salt Lake Field Office. Current threats are to sage grouse habitat and powerlines. A Voluntary Fire Department engine was burned over and destroyed with no personnel injuries. 66 people are assigned to this fire.

Southern California Large Fires
BARRETT: This 2,000 acre (880 ha) fire burned near Tecate, California on state lands protected by the California Department of Forestry, San Diego Ranger Unit. A campfire started the fire. 100 % of the work necessary to contain this fire has been completed. 854 people are assigned to the fire. This will be the last report unless significant new activity is reported.

National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) Wildland Fire Update (29 June 2000)
The Two Fork fire near the Department of Energy Hanford Site northwest of Richland, Washington, has burned at least 100,000 acres (40,000 ha) so far and is threatening structures in the area. Winds are expected to be strong again today, challenging firefighters trying to suppress the fire. In addition, five new large fires were reported from Alaska, Idaho, Nevada and Oregon yesterday.

Winds are expected to be strong along the east slopes of the Cascade Mountains in Washington and Oregon today. Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the mountains of southern California through the Sierra Nevada and across the southern Great Basin to southwestern Colorado. The rest of the western states will be mostly sunny, dry and hot, except in the Southwest where monsoon rains are expected to continue.
The nation's wildland firefighting resources are at full strength and ready to respond to activity as seasonal weather conditions throughout the West increase fire danger. Very high to extreme fire conditions were reported from Alaska, Oregon, Washington, California, Idaho, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Wyoming, Florida and Mississippi. Moderate activity is occurring and there are currently five large fires burning in Alaska, California, Florida and Nevada for a total of 3,400 acres (1,376 ha).

Tab.1. Five-Year Wildland Fire Comparison Statistics Year-to-Date for the United States (3 July 2000)
(Source: National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC)

As of 26 June 2000	Number of Wildland Fires	Area burnt
As of 26 June 2000	Number of Wildland Fires	Acres	Hectars
2000	49,000	1,653,941	669,326
1999	47,146	1,164,233	471,150
1998	32,588	734,870	297,391
1997	32,404	739,028	299,074
1996	68,004	2,426,087	981,802

Current Situation:
New large fires were reported in the Western and Eastern Great Basin. Firefighters made good progress on fires in the Eastern Great Basin,
Western Great Basin, Northwest and Southern California Areas. Fire activity increased on some of the large fires in Alaska due to warming and
drying conditions. Very high to extreme fire danger indices were reported in Oregon, Alaska, California, Montana, Idaho, Utah, Nevada, Arizona,
Washington, Wyoming, Colorado, Mississippi and Maryland.

Outlook:
*** A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS POSTED FOR SOUTHEAST IDAHO FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW FUEL MOISTURE. ***

Monsoonal moisture is expected to continue to move into the southwestern United States bringing widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. Winds will be out of the west and southwest at 10 to 20 mph. A trough of low pressure will slowly move inland in the Pacific Northwest and will help to push a weak cold front into Idaho and the Northern Rockies for widespread wet thunderstorms over the northern portions of the Rocky Mountains. Winds will be strong out of the southwest at 15 to 30 mph.
Isolated thunderstorms are forecast for the eastern Great Basin where some should be dry. High temperatures will be in the 75 to 90 degree range in the valleys and relative humidities should be 25 to 25 percent.
The mountains of the west can expect temperatures from the mid 60's to mid 70's and relative humidities 35 to 45 percent. The warmest deserts of the west can expect temperatures to range from 85 to 105 degrees and minimum relative humidities 10 to 20 percent.

Long-range, 30-day weather forecasts are predicting above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for the southern tier of states from southern California to Florida and throughout the Midwest (see 30 and 90-day forecast maps).

NIFC Wildland Fire Potential Assessment (8 June to 6 July 2000):
ALASKA - Potential: normal.
Temperatures have been below normal and precipitation has been above normal for the last six weeks. May was the second coolest in the past 35 years, and green-up was a week or more later than usual. Currently south-central Alaska has the greatest fire potential. Thunderstorm activity should increase later this month and cause a normal amount of fire activity in the interior.
NORTHWEST - Potential: Below normal to normal.
Temperatures and precipitation have been normal for the past month. Live fuel moistures are above average and have been measured at 121% in central Oregon to 131% in eastern Washington. 1000 hour dead fuel moistures have been above normal in most of the area and generally are being measured from 28% in the west to 17% in the eastern regions. Low potential for fire occurrence and severity is expected for most of the area. In the lower elevations of eastern Washington and Oregon, predicted warmer and drier than normal weather conditions will lead to a normal potential for fires.
CALIFORNIA - Potential: Normal to above normal.
Precipitation has been below normal and temperatures have been above normal in southern California. In the north both temperature and precipitation have been normal. Some moderate drought conditions still exist in southern California. 1000 hour fuel moistures are normal for this time of year throughout the area. Precipitation received in June will be critical to determining the rest of the season for northern California. The May pattern of less marine influence on southern California will likely continue through June, promoting the likeliness of above average temperatures and low humidities.
NORTHERN ROCKIES - Potential: Normal.
Precipitation has been below normal and temperatures have been above normal during the last month in most of the area except for northern Idaho, where both have been normal. Live fuel moisture is below normal east of the Continental Divide. 1000 hour dead fuel moisture is running 9 to 12 percent below normal and is measured at 13 to 21%. Eastern and central Montana are experiencing moderate to severe drought conditions, but wetting rains at the end of May have brought some relief. If normal June rains occur, fire occurrence will be average.
GREAT BASIN - Potential: Normal to above normal.
Temperatures have been above normal during the past month while precipitation has been normal to below normal through the area. Snowpack is 45 to 80 percent of normal in the higher elevations, and most areas are reporting that they are two to three weeks ahead of normal fire season, because of the mild winter. Frost-killed fuels are a concern in eastern Utah. Fine fuel carryover from the past several years is contributing to increased risk of fire activity in Nevada. 1000 hr fuel moistures were measured at 10 to 25% throughout the Great Basin and are 10% below normal in Nevada. Moderate to severe drought conditions are being reported in both southern Nevada and southern Utah.
SOUTHWEST - Potential: Above normal.
Precipitation has been below normal everywhere except in southeastern Arizona, where it has been normal. Temperatures have been above normal in all parts of the region, as much as 5 to 8 degrees Fahrenheit. Long range forecasts call for above normal temperatures to persist during this month. Long range outlook indicates above normal precipitation for Arizona and New Mexico. 1000 hour fuel moistures are below normal in the central and southern regions and normal in the north. Live fuel moisture is in the 50 to 90 percent range everywhere except the northern portions of both state where live fuel moistures are measured in the 70 to 110 percent ranges. PDI indicates that moderate to severe drought conditions continue throughout all of Arizona and all except the northeast part of New Mexico.
ROCKY MOUNTAIN - Potential: Normal to above normal.
Precipitation has been normal to below normal and temperatures have been normal to above normal in the past month. Live fuel moistures have been normal except in southern and western Colorado, where they have been up to 40 percent below normal. 1000 hour fuel moistures are below normal for this time of year at 7 to 12% in the west and 10 to 14% in the east. Fire activity is expected to be above normal in southwestern Colorado and in southwestern Wyoming. Due to the anticipated weather pattern where waves of moisture move through about once a week, fire events should be of high intensity but relatively short duration.
EASTERN - Potential: Normal to above normal.
Temperatures and precipitation have been normal in most of the Eastern Area, except in the Upper Great Lakes region, where precipitation has been below normal. 1000 hr fuels are being measured in the 19 to 25% ranges, approximately 3% below normal for this time of year. Moderate to severe drought conditions exist in the central Midwest and the upper Great Lakes region. Green-up and increased precipitation over the past two weeks have significantly reduced fire danger everywhere except in the Upper Great Lakes area.
SOUTHERN -Potential: Normal to above normal.
Temperatures have been above normal and precipitation has been normal to below normal through most of the area last month. Approximately one third of the area has a soil moisture deficit of six inches or more. Long-term precipitation anomalies are substantial over most of the region. Southern Louisiana, Georgia, western South Carolina, and central Florida all report extreme drought conditions. 1000 hour fuel moistures are being measured at 7% in parts of Florida and around 20% in the rest of the area.

Temperatures and Precipitation reflect conditions over the past four to six weeks. The long range forecast is for the next 30 days. Above and below normal is indicated above in the narrative, areas not mentioned fall in the climatology category which means there are equal chances of being below normal(33.3%), normal (33.3%) or above normal (33.3%).

Map describing the wildland fire potential (8 June - 6 July 2000) for areas throughout the country.
(Source: National Interagency Fire Center)

Remarks on Prescribed Burning
At this time of the year prescribed burning operations are conducted routinely.
Fire is an important natural tool for ecosystem management. It can reduce dense vegetation improving wildlife habitat and lessening the potential for large, wildfire disasters. Land managers are directed to prepare a prescribed fire/burn plan for every area of public land that can burn. Some areas require total suppression while others will benefit from a wildland fire. Those areas that will benefit from a fire can be treated by a prescribed fire.
Especially, for the moment, in the southern and southeastern regions of the United States prescribed fire activities will be carried out in the following weeks and months. In this case, fire signals on satellite images can be traced back to this kind of land management activities.

In the Prescribed Fire Position Paper of the Forest Protection Bureau by the Division of Forestry in Florida, prescribed fire activity is described as a land management application that is essential to the practice of forestry, management of wildlife, preservation of endangered plant and animal species, improvement of range conditions and reduction of wildfire damage in the wildland/urban interface areas. While there is general public and landowner concern with increased smoke, reduced air quality, and liability; the general public and landowners benefit significantly from the reduction of devastating wildfire, improved wildlife habitat and forage, preservation of endangered and threatened plant and animal species, and improved management of forest resources. The prospect of severe reductions in the utilization of this management tool is of major concern to Florida's natural resource managers and conservationists due to the subsequent loss of derived public and private benefits. They suggest the need for legislative attention.

A set of photographic documents on prescribed burning techniques and objectives in the Southeast can be visited in our photo archive.