GFMC: Forest Fires in the United States, 26 June 2000

The Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS) is a contribution of "The Fire Behavior Research Work Unit", Missoula (Montana USA). The broad area component of the Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS) generates maps of selected fire weather and fire danger components.

Fire Danger (Potential) is a normalized adjective rating class across different fuel models and station locations. It is based on information provided by local station managers about the primary fuel model, fire danger index selected to reflect staffing level, and climatological class breakpoints. Low danger (class 1) is green and extreme potential (class 5) is red.

Dead fuel moisture responds solely to ambient environmental conditions and is critical in determining fire potential. Dead fuel moistures are classed by timelag. A fuel's timelag is proportional to its diameter and is loosely defined as the time it takes a fuel particle to reach 2/3's of its way to equilibrium with its local environment. Dead fuels in NFDRS have four timelag classes:
1-hr: Fine flashy fuels, less than 1/4" (< 0.63 cm) diameter. Responds quickly to weather changes. Computed from observation time temperature, humidity and cloudiness.
10-hr: 1/4 to 1" (0.63 to 2.54 cm) diameters. Computed from observation time temperature, humidty, and cloudiness, or may be a standard set of "10-Hr Fuel Sticks" that are weighed as part of the fire weather observation.
100-hr: 1 to 3" (2.54 to 7.62 cm) diameter. Computed from 24 hour average boundary condition composed of day length, hours of rain, and daily temperature/humidity ranges.
1000-hr: 3 to 6" (7.62 to 15.24 cm) diameter. Computed from a 7-day average boundary condition composed of day length, hours of rain, and daily temperature/humidity ranges.


10-HR Fuel Moisture	100-HR Fuel Moisture	1000-HR Fuel Moisture

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) is a soil/duff drought index that ranges from 0 (no drought) to 800 (extreme drought) and is based on a soil capacity of 8 inches of water. Factors in the index are maximum daily temperature, daily precipitation, antecedent precipitation, and annual precipitation. KBDI = 0 - 200: Soil moisture and large class fuel moistures are high and do not contribute much to fire intensity. Typical of spring dormant season following winter precipitation. KBDI = 200 - 400: Typical of late spring, early growing season. Lower litter and duff layers are drying and beginning to contribute to fire intensity. KBDI = 400 - 600: Typical of late summer, early fall. Lower litter and duff layers actively contribute to fire intensity and will burn actively. KBDI = 600 - 800: Often associated with more severe drought with increased wildfire occurrence. Intense, deep burning fires with significant downwind spotting can be expected. Live fuels can also be expected to burn actively at these levels.
For further information on the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) by Florida's Division of Forestry / Forest Protection Bureau please refer to Keetch-Byram Drought Index Revisited: Prescribed Fire Applications.

Fire and Aviation Management Morning Report (25 June 2000)
Colorado
PINON CANYON: This 830 acre (336 ha)fire is burning on the Comanche National Grasslands south of La Junta, Colorado. 30% of the work has been done to contain the fire. There are 72 people working on the fire.
Nevada
BASIN: This 2,325 acre (940 ha) fire is burning on Bureau of Land Management lands 22 miles (35 km) southwest of Jiggs, Nevada. 70 % of the work has been done to contain the fire. There are 225 people working on the fire.
TONKIN ROAD: This 1,400 acre (566 ha) fire is burning on Bureau of Land Management lands 75 miles (120 km) south of Carlin, Nevada. 50 % of the work has been done to contain the fire.
BOX CANYON: This 1,032 acre (417 ha) fire is burning on Bureau of Land Management lands ten miles north of Winnemucca, Nevada. 90% of the work has been done to contain the fire.
Washington
RANGE: This 9,500 acre (3,844 ha) fire is burning on Yakima Agency (Bureau of Indian Affairs) lands south of Toppenish, Washington. 80 % of the work has been done to contain the fire. There are 105 people working on the fire.
Oregon
SEATTLE FLAT: This 3,400 acre (1,375 ha) fire is burning on Bureau of Land Management lands 11 miles north of Madras, Oregon. 100% of the work has been done to contain the fire, and this will be the last report unless conditions change. There are 26 people working on the fire.
HARPHAM: This 800 acre (323 ha) fire is burning on Bureau of Land Management lands three miles southeast of Maupin. Harpham Flat Campground was evacuated and one structure was destroyed. 0 % of the work has been done to contain the fire. There are 41 people working on the fire.
Florida
MUSE COMMAND: This 1,000 acre (404 ha) fire is burning on lands protected by the Florida State Division of Forestry east of St. Cloud, Florida, in Osceola County.
WILDCOW: This 600 acre (243 ha) fire is burning on lands protected by the Florida State Division of Forestry in Hendry County near Felda, Florida. 95% of the work has been done to contain the fire.

National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) Wildland Fire Update (23 June 2000)
The national response level decreased yesterday as wildland fire activity continues to be moderate throughout the country. More than 200 new fires were reported yesterday, which is normal for this time of year. There are three new large fires in Florida, Louisiana and Oregon and three large fires contained in Alabama, Nevada and Washington.
Seasonal weather conditions are leading to very high to extreme fire conditions in many states throughout the West where wildland fire activity is expected to occur. According to officials at the National Interagency Coordination Center at NIFC, however, firefighting resources are at full strength and ready to respond to the demands of increased activity.
Although fire activity has decreased significantly, fire danger remains extreme in many states. Visitors to the public lands should take precautions to learn about fire restrictions in the area. In some cases campfires may not be allowed and fireworks prohibited.
Homeowners in the wildlands should also be aware of fire danger in and adjacent to their property. Creating a firebreak around property can help increase the survivability of structures if a wildland fire occurs. Visit the FireWise web site for more details about creating a firewise environment.

Tab.1. Five-Year Wildland Fire Comparison Statistics Year-to-Date for the United States (23 June 2000)
(Source: National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC)

As of 23 June 2000	Number of Wildland Fires	Area burnt
As of 23 June 2000	Number of Wildland Fires	Acres	Hectars
2000	47,168	1,313,421	531,522
1999	46,106	1,087,025	439,903
1998	28,112	633,617	256,415
1997	30,927	466,141	188,640
1996	66,984	2,123,658	859,413

NIFC Incident Management Situation Report (25 June 2000)
Current Situation:
A new large fire was reported in the Northwest Area. Initial attack activity was moderate in the Southern Area and light elsewhere. The National Interagency Coordination Center mobilized an airtanker, infrared aircraft, a helicopter, and miscellaneous overhead. Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Idaho, Kansas, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, and Utah.
Outlook:
For the western United States there will be scattered afternoon thunderstorms with gusty winds east of the line from Phoenix, Arizona to Las Vegas, Nevada through central Utah to Denver, Colorado into central Montana. The remainder of the west will be dry. Most thunderstorms in Utah will be dry.
Valley temperatures in the western United States will range from the 70's to 80's (21-31°C) over northern portions and into the 90's (32-37°C) over the south. Mountain temperatures will range 10 to 15 degrees cooler than nearby valleys. The lower deserts in southern California and Arizona will reach near 105 degrees (40°C). Minimum relative humidities will generally be 10 to 30 percent throughout the West, except for the coastal areas which will be above 70 percent.
Florida will be partly cloudy with scattered afternoon thunderstorms. High temperatures will be in the 90's (32-37°C). Minimum relative humidities will be around 50 percent.

Long-range, 30-day weather forecasts are predicting above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for the southern tier of states from southern California to Florida and throughout the Midwest (see 30 and 90-day forecast maps).

NIFC Wildland Fire Potential Assessment (8 June to 6 July 2000):
ALASKA - Potential: normal.
Temperatures have been below normal and precipitation has been above normal for the last six weeks. May was the second coolest in the past 35 years, and green-up was a week or more later than usual. Currently south-central Alaska has the greatest fire potential. Thunderstorm activity should increase later this month and cause a normal amount of fire activity in the interior.
NORTHWEST - Potential: Below normal to normal.
Temperatures and precipitation have been normal for the past month. Live fuel moistures are above average and have been measured at 121% in central Oregon to 131% in eastern Washington. 1000 hour dead fuel moistures have been above normal in most of the area and generally are being measured from 28% in the west to 17% in the eastern regions. Low potential for fire occurrence and severity is expected for most of the area. In the lower elevations of eastern Washington and Oregon, predicted warmer and drier than normal weather conditions will lead to a normal potential for fires.
CALIFORNIA - Potential: Normal to above normal.
Precipitation has been below normal and temperatures have been above normal in southern California. In the north both temperature and precipitation have been normal. Some moderate drought conditions still exist in southern California. 1000 hour fuel moistures are normal for this time of year throughout the area. Precipitation received in June will be critical to determining the rest of the season for northern California. The May pattern of less marine influence on southern California will likely continue through June, promoting the likeliness of above average temperatures and low humidities.
NORTHERN ROCKIES - Potential: Normal.
Precipitation has been below normal and temperatures have been above normal during the last month in most of the area except for northern Idaho, where both have been normal. Live fuel moisture is below normal east of the Continental Divide. 1000 hour dead fuel moisture is running 9 to 12 percent below normal and is measured at 13 to 21%. Eastern and central Montana are experiencing moderate to severe drought conditions, but wetting rains at the end of May have brought some relief. If normal June rains occur, fire occurrence will be average.
GREAT BASIN - Potential: Normal to above normal.
Temperatures have been above normal during the past month while precipitation has been normal to below normal through the area. Snowpack is 45 to 80 percent of normal in the higher elevations, and most areas are reporting that they are two to three weeks ahead of normal fire season, because of the mild winter. Frost-killed fuels are a concern in eastern Utah. Fine fuel carryover from the past several years is contributing to increased risk of fire activity in Nevada. 1000 hr fuel moistures were measured at 10 to 25% throughout the Great Basin and are 10% below normal in Nevada. Moderate to severe drought conditions are being reported in both southern Nevada and southern Utah.
SOUTHWEST - Potential: Above normal.
Precipitation has been below normal everywhere except in southeastern Arizona, where it has been normal. Temperatures have been above normal in all parts of the region, as much as 5 to 8 degrees Fahrenheit. Long range forecasts call for above normal temperatures to persist during this month. Long range outlook indicates above normal precipitation for Arizona and New Mexico. 1000 hour fuel moistures are below normal in the central and southern regions and normal in the north. Live fuel moisture is in the 50 to 90 percent range everywhere except the northern portions of both state where live fuel moistures are measured in the 70 to 110 percent ranges. PDI indicates that moderate to severe drought conditions continue throughout all of Arizona and all except the northeast part of New Mexico.
ROCKY MOUNTAIN - Potential: Normal to above normal.
Precipitation has been normal to below normal and temperatures have been normal to above normal in the past month. Live fuel moistures have been normal except in southern and western Colorado, where they have been up to 40 percent below normal. 1000 hour fuel moistures are below normal for this time of year at 7 to 12% in the west and 10 to 14% in the east. Fire activity is expected to be above normal in southwestern Colorado and in southwestern Wyoming. Due to the anticipated weather pattern where waves of moisture move through about once a week, fire events should be of high intensity but relatively short duration.
EASTERN - Potential: Normal to above normal.
Temperatures and precipitation have been normal in most of the Eastern Area, except in the Upper Great Lakes region, where precipitation has been below normal. 1000 hr fuels are being measured in the 19 to 25% ranges, approximately 3% below normal for this time of year. Moderate to severe drought conditions exist in the central Midwest and the upper Great Lakes region. Green-up and increased precipitation over the past two weeks have significantly reduced fire danger everywhere except in the Upper Great Lakes area.
SOUTHERN -Potential: Normal to above normal.
Temperatures have been above normal and precipitation has been normal to below normal through most of the area last month. Approximately one third of the area has a soil moisture deficit of six inches or more. Long-term precipitation anomalies are substantial over most of the region. Southern Louisiana, Georgia, western South Carolina, and central Florida all report extreme drought conditions. 1000 hour fuel moistures are being measured at 7% in parts of Florida and around 20% in the rest of the area.

Temperatures and Precipitation reflect conditions over the past four to six weeks. The long range forecast is for the next 30 days. Above and below normal is indicated above in the narrative, areas not mentioned fall in the climatology category which means there are equal chances of being below normal(33.3%), normal (33.3%) or above normal (33.3%).

Fig.9. Map describing the wildland fire potential (8 June - 6 July 2000) for areas throughout the country.
(Source: National Interagency Fire Center)

Remarks on Prescribed Burning
At this time of the year prescribed burning operations are conducted routinely.
Fire is an important natural tool for ecosystem management. It can reduce dense vegetation improving wildlife habitat and lessening the potential for large, wildfire disasters. Land managers are directed to prepare a prescribed fire/burn plan for every area of public land that can burn. Some areas require total suppression while others will benefit from a wildland fire. Those areas that will benefit from a fire can be treated by a prescribed fire.
Especially, for the moment, in the southern and southeastern regions of the United States prescribed fire activities will be carried out in the following weeks and months. In this case, fire signals on satellite images can be traced back to this kind of land management activities.

In the Prescribed Fire Position Paper of the Forest Protection Bureau by the Division of Forestry in Florida, prescribed fire activity is described as a land management application that is essential to the practice of forestry, management of wildlife, preservation of endangered plant and animal species, improvement of range conditions and reduction of wildfire damage in the wildland/urban interface areas. While there is general public and landowner concern with increased smoke, reduced air quality, and liability; the general public and landowners benefit significantly from the reduction of devastating wildfire, improved wildlife habitat and forage, preservation of endangered and threatened plant and animal species, and improved management of forest resources. The prospect of severe reductions in the utilization of this management tool is of major concern to Florida's natural resource managers and conservationists due to the subsequent loss of derived public and private benefits. They suggest the need for legislative attention.

A set of photographic documents on prescribed burning techniques and objectives in the Southeast can be visited in our photo archive.