GFMC: Forest Fires in the United States, 15 June 2000

The Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS) is a contribution of "The Fire Behavior Research Work Unit", Missoula (Montana USA). The broad area component of the Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS) generates maps of selected fire weather and fire danger components. Fire Danger (Potential) is a normalized adjective rating class across different fuel models and station locations. It is based on information provided by local station managers about the primary fuel model, fire danger index selected to reflect staffing level, and climatological class breakpoints. Low danger (class 1) is green and extreme potential (class 5) is red.

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) is a soil/duff drought index that ranges from 0 (no drought) to 800 (extreme drought) and is based on a soil capacity of 8 inches of water. Factors in the index are maximum daily temperature, daily precipitation, antecedent precipitation, and annual precipitation. KBDI = 0 - 200: Soil moisture and large class fuel moistures are high and do not contribute much to fire intensity. Typical of spring dormant season following winter precipitation. KBDI = 200 - 400: Typical of late spring, early growing season. Lower litter and duff layers are drying and beginning to contribute to fire intensity. KBDI = 400 - 600: Typical of late summer, early fall. Lower litter and duff layers actively contribute to fire intensity and will burn actively. KBDI = 600 - 800: Often associated with more severe drought with increased wildfire occurrence. Intense, deep burning fires with significant downwind spotting can be expected. Live fuels can also be expected to burn actively at these levels.
For further information on the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) by Florida's Division of Forestry / Forest Protection Bureau please refer to Keetch-Byram Drought Index Revisited: Prescribed Fire Applications.

Several active fire signals were recorded by NOAA/OSEI with the NOAA-15 AVHRR satellite.

Fig.4. NOAA-15 POES AVHRR satellite image 14 June 2000.
The heat signature (red) is visible from the Bobcat Fire in northern Colorado in this late
evening NOAA-15 pass. The Bobcat Fire has burned an estimated 4,900 acres in the
Arapaho-Roosevelt National Forest. The heat signature (red) and smoke plume (faintly
visible) from the Pot Mountain fire in northern New Mexico are also visible. The Pot
Mountain Fire has burned an estimated 1,000 acres..

According to the Fire and Aviation Management Morning Report (15 June 2000), current wildfires are burning in:
California:
BERRYESSA: This 4,000 acre (1,620 ha) fire is burning 36 miles (58 km) west of Sacramento on land protected by the California Department of Forestry. 40 residences are threatened near Lake Berryessa. 30% of the work to contain the fire has been done. 426 people are working on this fire.
New Mexico
SALIZ: This 850 acre (343 ha) fire is burning on the Gila National Forest, 15 miles (24 km) southwest of Reserve, New Mexico. 10% of the work has been done to contain the fire. There are 10 people working on the fire.
VIVEASH: This 28,283 acre (11.445 ha) fire is burning on the Santa Fe National Forest, five miles northwest of Pecos, New Mexico. 80% of the work has been done to contain the fire. There are 268 people working on the fire.
POT MOUNTAIN: This 700 acre (283 ha) fire is burning on Bureau of Land Management lands 30 miles (50 km) northwest of Taos, New Mexico. 50% of the work has been done to contain the fire.
Arizona
OUTLET: This 14,118 (5,713 ha) acre fire is burning at Grand Canyon National Park lands, 25 miles (40 km) south of Jacob Lake, Arizona. 90% of the work has been completed to contain this fire. There are 272 people working on the fire.
Florida
DC COMMAND: This 1,000 acre (405 ha) fire is burning on Florida State Division of Forestry managed land near Homestead, Florida. There are 5 people working on the fire. 100% of the work has been completed for containment of the fire and this will be the last report unless conditions change.
LOUISE: This 4,000 acre (1,620 ha) fire is burning on Florida State Division of Forestry administered land in Alachua County near Gainesville, Florida. 60 people are working on this fire. 95% of the work has been done toward containment.
Colorado
BOBCAT: This 6,700 (2,711 ha) acre fire is burning on the Arapaho-Roosevelt National Forest, 12 miles (20 km) west of Loveland, Colorado. Structures are threatened and evacuations are taking place. Fire Suppression Assistance was approved for this fire on June 12. 10% of the work has been completed for containment of this fire. 626 people are working on the fire.
HIGH MEADOW: This fire is burning on Colorado State Forest Service protected lands 35 miles (57 km) southwest of Denver, near Bailey, Colorado. 39 homes and two outbuildings have been destroyed. Over 200 homes have been evacuated. Fire Suppression Assistance was approved for this fire on June 12. 15% of the work has been completed for containment of the fire. 459 people are working on the fire.

The National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) Wildland Fire Update (14 June 2000)
The High Meadow fire near Bailey, Colorado, has burned 39 homes, two outbuildings and continues to threaten more structures. The Bobcat fire near Loveland, Colorado, is also burning actively causing evacuations as it continues to threaten structures. Fire conditions are expected to remain extreme in Colorado as forecasted winds will range from 30 to 60 mph tomorrow.
Fire activity is becoming more widespread throughout the West as seasonal weather brings warm and dry conditions to several states. There are currently 10 large fires are burning in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, and New Mexico for a total of 49,071 acres.
Rehabilitation efforts continue on the Cerro Grande fire area near Los Alamos, New Mexico, and is scheduled to be completed by July 1st. Visit the Burned Area Emergency Rehabilitation Team web site for more information about these efforts.

NIFC Incident Management Situation Report (15 June 2000)
Current Situation:
New large fires were reported in the Southwest and Northern California Areas. Strong winds and low relative humidities will hinder suppression activities in Colorado and New Mexico and the potential for new starts in Colorado should increase with dry lightning in the forecast. Initial attack activity was moderate in California, the Southwest, the Southern Area, and Alaska. Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, California, Utah, Nevada, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Wyoming, Minnesota, Florida, Georgia, and Mississippi.
Outlook:
A RED FLAG WARNING IS POSTED FOR NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS POSTED IN NORTHEAST COLORADO FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS, LOW HUMIDITIES AND POSSIBLE DRY LIGHTNING
Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, and Utah will be mostly sunny. Northeast Colorado will become mostly cloudy in the afternoon with isolated dry thunderstorms. High temperatures will be in the 60's and 70's in the mountains and up to 118 in desert areas. Winds in Arizona and Nevada will be west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Colorado, New Mexico and Utah will have west to northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Minimum relative humidities will be 5 to 15 percent in desert areas and 15 to 30 percent at higher elevations.
California will be sunny with morning coastal fog. High temperatures will be in the 70's and 80's along the coast, 90 to 105 inland and 110 to 118 in the deserts. Winds will be variable at 5 to 15 mph. Minimum relative humidities will range from 45 to 60 percent on the coast to less than 10 percent in the deserts.
Florida will have mostly cloudy conditions in the north with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Central and southern Florida will be partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms. High temperatures will be in the mid 80's to the mid 90's. Winds will be south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph. Minimum relative humidities will be 45 to 60 percent.
A fire weather watch is also posted in eastern Idaho for strong winds.

Long-range, 30-day weather forecasts are predicting above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for the southern tier of states from southern California to Florida and throughout the Midwest (see 30 and 90-day forecast maps).

Tab.1. Five-Year Wildland Fire Comparison Statistics Year-to-Date for the United States (12 June 2000)
(Source: National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC)

As of 12 June 2000	Number of Wildland Fires	Area burnt
As of 12 June 2000	Number of Wildland Fires	Acres	Hectars
2000	44,318	1,210,368	489,818
1999	43,583	854,206	345,684
1998	25,873	596,365	241,340
1997	29,772	475,258	192,330
1996	61,008	1,848,917	748,230

NIFC Wildland Fire Potential Assessment (8 June to 6 July 2000):
ALASKA - Potential: normal. Temperatures have been below normal and precipitation has been above normal for the last six weeks. May was the second coolest in the past 35 years, and green-up was a week or more later than usual. Currently south-central Alaska has the greatest fire potential. Thunderstorm activity should increase later this month and cause a normal amount of fire activity in the interior.
NORTHWEST - Potential: Below normal to normal. Temperatures and precipitation have been normal for the past month. Live fuel moistures are above average and have been measured at 121% in central Oregon to 131% in eastern Washington. 1000 hour dead fuel moistures have been above normal in most of the area and generally are being measured from 28% in the west to 17% in the eastern regions. Low potential for fire occurrence and severity is expected for most of the area. In the lower elevations of eastern Washington and Oregon, predicted warmer and drier than normal weather conditions will lead to a normal potential for fires.
CALIFORNIA - Potential: Normal to above normal. Precipitation has been below normal and temperatures have been above normal in southern California. In the north both temperature and precipitation have been normal. Some moderate drought conditions still exist in southern California. 1000 hour fuel moistures are normal for this time of year throughout the area. Precipitation received in June will be critical to determining the rest of the season for northern California. The May pattern of less marine influence on southern California will likely continue through June, promoting the likeliness of above average temperatures and low humidities.
NORTHERN ROCKIES - Potential: Normal. Precipitation has been below normal and temperatures have been above normal during the last month in most of the area except for northern Idaho, where both have been normal. Live fuel moisture is below normal east of the Continental Divide. 1000 hour dead fuel moisture is running 9 to 12 percent below normal and is measured at 13 to 21%. Eastern and central Montana are experiencing moderate to severe drought conditions, but wetting rains at the end of May have brought some relief. If normal June rains occur, fire occurrence will be average.
GREAT BASIN - Potential: Normal to above normal. Temperatures have been above normal during the past month while precipitation has been normal to below normal through the area. Snowpack is 45 to 80 percent of normal in the higher elevations, and most areas are reporting that they are two to three weeks ahead of normal fire season, because of the mild winter. Frost-killed fuels are a concern in eastern Utah. Fine fuel carryover from the past several years is contributing to increased risk of fire activity in Nevada. 1000 hr fuel moistures were measured at 10 to 25% throughout the Great Basin and are 10% below normal in Nevada. Moderate to severe drought conditions are being reported in both southern Nevada and southern Utah.
SOUTHWEST - Potential: Above normal. Precipitation has been below normal everywhere except in southeastern Arizona, where it has been normal. Temperatures have been above normal in all parts of the region, as much as 5 to 8 degrees Fahrenheit. Long range forecasts call for above normal temperatures to persist during this month. Long range outlook indicates above normal precipitation for Arizona and New Mexico. 1000 hour fuel moistures are below normal in the central and southern regions and normal in the north. Live fuel moisture is in the 50 to 90 percent range everywhere except the northern portions of both state where live fuel moistures are measured in the 70 to 110 percent ranges. PDI indicates that moderate to severe drought conditions continue throughout all of Arizona and all except the northeast part of New Mexico.
ROCKY MOUNTAIN - Potential: Normal to above normal. Precipitation has been normal to below normal and temperatures have been normal to above normal in the past month. Live fuel moistures have been normal except in southern and western Colorado, where they have been up to 40 percent below normal. 1000 hour fuel moistures are below normal for this time of year at 7 to 12% in the west and 10 to 14% in the east. Fire activity is expected to be above normal in southwestern Colorado and in southwestern Wyoming. Due to the anticipated weather pattern where waves of moisture move through about once a week, fire events should be of high intensity but relatively short duration.
EASTERN - Potential: Normal to above normal. Temperatures and precipitation have been normal in most of the Eastern Area, except in the Upper Great Lakes region, where precipitation has been below normal. 1000 hr fuels are being measured in the 19 to 25% ranges, approximately 3% below normal for this time of year. Moderate to severe drought conditions exist in the central Midwest and the upper Great Lakes region. Green-up and increased precipitation over the past two weeks have significantly reduced fire danger everywhere except in the Upper Great Lakes area.
SOUTHERN -Potential: Normal to above normal. Temperatures have been above normal and precipitation has been normal to below normal through most of the area last month. Approximately one third of the area has a soil moisture deficit of six inches or more. Long-term precipitation anomalies are substantial over most of the region. Southern Louisiana, Georgia, western South Carolina, and central Florida all report extreme drought conditions. 1000 hour fuel moistures are being measured at 7% in parts of Florida and around 20% in the rest of the area.

Temperatures and Precipitation reflect conditions over the past four to six weeks. The long range forecast is for the next 30 days. Above and below normal is indicated above in the narrative, areas not mentioned fall in the climatology category which means there are equal chances of being below normal(33.3%), normal (33.3%) or above normal (33.3%).

Fig.7. Map describing the wildland fire potential (8 June - 6 July 2000) for areas throughout the country.
(Source: National Interagency Fire Center)

Remarks on Prescribed Burning
At this time of the year prescribed burning operations are conducted routinely.
Fire is an important natural tool for ecosystem management. It can reduce dense vegetation improving wildlife habitat and lessening the potential for large, wildfire disasters. Land managers are directed to prepare a prescribed fire/burn plan for every area of public land that can burn. Some areas require total suppression while others will benefit from a wildland fire. Those areas that will benefit from a fire can be treated by a prescribed fire.
Especially, for the moment, in the southern and southeastern regions of the United States prescribed fire activities will be carried out in the following weeks and months. In this case, fire signals on satellite images can be traced back to this kind of land management activities.

In the Prescribed Fire Position Paper of the Forest Protection Bureau by the Division of Forestry in Florida, prescribed fire activity is described as a land management application that is essential to the practice of forestry, management of wildlife, preservation of endangered plant and animal species, improvement of range conditions and reduction of wildfire damage in the wildland/urban interface areas. While there is general public and landowner concern with increased smoke, reduced air quality, and liability; the general public and landowners benefit significantly from the reduction of devastating wildfire, improved wildlife habitat and forage, preservation of endangered and threatened plant and animal species, and improved management of forest resources. The prospect of severe reductions in the utilization of this management tool is of major concern to Florida's natural resource managers and conservationists due to the subsequent loss of derived public and private benefits. They suggest the need for legislative attention.

A set of photographic documents on prescribed burning techniques and objectives in the Southeast can be visited in our photo archive.