Operational
Significant Event Imagery (OSEI)
The following significant events were identified by Satellite Analysis Branch
meteorologists and reviewed by the OSEI support team of the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA):
MODIS satellite images,
Heat signatures (red) are visible from fires burning in Malaysia in this MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) image.
(Source: OSEI/NOAA)
Weather and Haze Outlook
Tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were near normal to slightly above normal in September 2001. Most forecasts of advanced
centres indicate SSTAs to increase slightly to above normal (+ 0.5º C ) by the end of the first quarter of 2002. This could indicate the possibility of the onset
of a weak El Nino episode in the second half of 2002.
The region is expected to transit from the current Southwest Monsoon Season to inter-monsoon conditions in October and November. While brief
periods of dry weather could still occur, particularly over southern Sumatra and Kalimantan in October 2001, most parts of the region should begin to
experience increased thundery shower activities in the coming months. These should bring about an end the potential of any smoke haze in the region for
the rest of 2001.
The GFMC displays selected and daily updated global and Asia-Pacific Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) Fire Weather Forecasts. These examples allow a quicklook and provide daily and weekly total forecasts and forecasted monthly totals. For background information refer to the ECPC products description page.
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| tomorrow | this week | this month |
Fire Weather Index (FWI) forecast for tomorrow (left),
this week (center) and the predicted
FWI total for next month (right) for the Western Pacific (1-3) and the Pacific Ocean (4-6)
regions.
The weekly total forecast and the monthly forecasted total refer to 00:00 hrs UTC,
which is local noon at dateline (180° longitude). Forecast time is 12:00 hrs noon UTC
(Greenwich)
corresponding to local evening time in mainland and insular SE Asia.
(Source: ECPC
Fire Weather Index Forecast)
The ASEAN Fire Weather Information System (ASFWIS) is a co-operation between ASEAN and the Canadian Forest Service. It provides maps describing the current fire weather situation in South East Asia. This system is based upon the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS) (for further infomation to the CFFDRS refer to ASFWIS). Studies have shown that the CFFDRS is applicable outside of Canada. Currently it is also used in a modified form in New Zealand (see References). In New Zealand the Fire Weather Indices Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC) and the Initial Spread Index (ISI) represent the fire danger in the scrublands. The Duff Moisture Code (DMC) is also applicable in South East Asia, because it potentially describes the moisture state of the upper peat layers in peat and peat swamp forests. All three parameters may serve as a suitable indicator of forest fire danger in South East Asia.
According to the ASFWIS for 3 May 2002 these parameters show various fire weather conditions over South East Asia:
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Fine Fuel Moisture Code |
Duff Moisture Code |
Drought Code |
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Initial Spread Index |
Buildup Index |
Fire Weather Index |
Output maps of the ASFWIS, 3 May 2002
(Source: ASFWIS)
Haze
Prevention Group
The industrial initiative to combat haze in SE Asia started to develop a
website in February 2002. The website will include information about the
objectives of this industrial initiative and the projects that are implemented
to reduce wildfires and haze in pilot projects in Indonesia.
The ASEAN Haze Action Online provides the following information:
- Monitoring: Hyperlinks to institutions involved in regional monitoring and prediction of fire and smoke haze
- Haze News: ASEAN Transboundary Haze Update (updated daily)
- Intranet: Information and possible participation in the ASEAN Haze Action Online Intranet Information Services (for associated registered participants)
- Mobilization Plan: Model Fire Suppression Mobilization Plan
- Inventory: Inventory and analysis of forest and land fire suppression capabilities
- Haze Forum: Communication platform on fire and smoke-haze issues in the ASEAN region
- Calendar: Fire and haze-related events can be identified by a search modus
The Integrated Forest Fire Management Project (IFFM) in Samarinda provides regulary updated hot spots maps of Kalimantan.