GFMC: Meterological Conditions and Fire in South East Asia
Meteorological Conditions and Firein South East Asia
31 October 2001
The Meteorological Service of Singapore reports on 30 October 2001 for the South East Asian region: “Isolated hot spots were detected in central Sumatra. The region is generally free from smoke haze.” Forecasts of winds and surface pressure are also available.
Regional Surface Winds and Haze/Fire Map, 30 October 2001
(Source: Meteorological Service of Singapore)
NOAA-AVHRR 12 Hot Spot Detection on Sumatra, 30 October 2001.
This Daylight picture is a composite from infrared and visible satellite imageries.
Colours are added to help identify and highlight various features. Generally,
smoke haze shows up in shades of yellow which may appear in streaks fanning
out from a small source or as large fuzzy patches. “Hot spots” can be identified
as red dots. As the imageries are taken from satellites, overlying clouds if present
will invariably obscure areas with smoke haze and hot spots. Strong reflection of sunlight
can also give rise to reddish shades over sea areas. These are not related to hot spots.
(Source: Meteorological Service of Singapore)
Review of Regional Weather and Smoke Haze
Apart from some isolated dry areas over the central Sumatra and the southern parts of Kalimantan, the region was generally wet in the month of September 2001. Hotspot counts over Sumatra were mostly low with daily counts well below 40 on most days (Fig.1). While over Kalimantan, the number of hotspots was below 50 on most days, except in the first week of the month when dry weather conditions resulted an increase in counts to between 100 to 200 from 1 to 3 September 2001 (Fig.2).
(SOURCE: Meteorological Service of Singapore)
Fig.1: Daily Hot Spots Counts over Kalimantan in September 2001
(Source: Meteorological Service of Singapore)
Fig.2: Daily Hot Spots Counts over Sumatra in September 2001
(Source: Meteorological Service of Singapore)
Weather and Haze Outlook
Tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were near normal to slightly above normal in September 2001. Most forecasts of advanced centres indicate SSTAs to increase slightly to above normal (+ 0.5º C ) by the end of the first quarter of 2002. This could indicate the possibility of the onset of a weak El Nino episode in the second half of 2002.
The region is expected to transit from the current Southwest Monsoon Season to inter-monsoon conditions in October and November. While brief periods of dry weather could still occur, particularly over southern Sumatra and Kalimantan in October 2001, most parts of the region should begin to experience increased thundery shower activities in the coming months. These should bring about an end the potential of any smoke haze in the region for the rest of 2001.
The Meteorological Service of Singapore provides rainfall-record charts for selected locations in Sumatra and Kalimantan with information about the mean annual rainfall and the actual monthly and weekly records for last year.
Rainfall charts for Sumatra and Kalimantan
(Source: Meteorological Service of Singapore)
The GFMC displays selected and daily updated global and Asia-Pacific Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) Fire Weather Forecasts. These examples allow a quicklook and provide daily and weekly total forecasts and forecasted monthly totals. For background information refer to the ECPC products description page.
tomorrow this week next month
Fire Weather Index (FWI) forecast for tomorrow (left), this week (center) and the predicted
FWI total for next month (right) for the Western Pacific (1-3) and the Pacific Ocean (4-6) regions.
The weekly total forecast and the monthly forecasted total refer to 00:00 hrs UTC,
which is local noon at dateline (180° longitude). Forecast time is 12:00 hrs noon UTC (Greenwich)
corresponding to local evening time in mainland and insular SE Asia.
(Source: ECPC Fire Weather Index Forecast)
The ASEAN Fire Weather Information System (ASFWIS) is a co-operation between ASEAN and the Canadian Forest Service. It provides maps describing the current fire weather situation in South East Asia. This system is based upon the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS) (for further infomation to the CFFDRS refer to ASFWIS). Studies have shown that the CFFDRS is applicable outside of Canada. Currently it is also used in a modified form in New Zealand (see References). In New Zealand the Fire Weather Indices Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC) and the Initial Spread Index (ISI) represent the fire danger in the scrublands. The Duff Moisture Code (DMC) is also applicable in South East Asia, because it potentially describes the moisture state of the upper peat layers in peat and peat swamp forests. All three parameters may serve as a suitable indicator of forest fire danger in South East Asia.
According to the ASFWIS for 29 October 2001 these parameters show various fire weather conditions over South East Asia:
Fine Fuel Moisture Code
Duff Moisture Code
Drought Code
Initial Spread Index
Buildup Index
Fire Weather Index
Keetch-Byram-Drought
Index
Output maps of the ASFWIS, 29 October 2001
(Source: ASFWIS)
The ASEAN Haze Action Online provides the following information:
- Monitoring: Hyperlinks to institutions involved in regional monitoring and prediction of fire and smoke haze
- Haze News: ASEAN Transboundary Haze Update (updated daily)
- Intranet: Information and possible participation in the ASEAN Haze Action Online Intranet Information Services (for associated registered participants)
- Mobilization Plan: Model Fire Suppression Mobilization Plan
- Inventory: Inventory and analysis of forest and land fire suppression capabilities
- Haze Forum: Communication platform on fire and smoke-haze issues in the ASEAN region
- Calendar: Fire and haze-related events can be identified by a search modus
The Integrated Forest Fire Management Project (IFFM) in Samarinda provides regulary updated hot spots maps of Kalimantan.
For further information, please also have a look to the current and archived IFFN Country Notes.
