Meteorological Conditions and Fire in South East Asia

20 July 2000


Indonesia fires spread - Smog reached Thailand
Forest fires raging on the Indonesian island of Sumatra are spreading and a thin blanket of smog has reached as far north as Thailand. Indonesia has played down fears of a re-run of the health crisis of 1997, when smog from illegal Indonesian fires cast a pall over much of Southeast Asia. The head of the Environmental Impact Management Agency in Riau province, T.M. Alamsyah, warned that smog triggered had reached an alarming level in Riau and other Sumatran provinces. There were found 163 fire spots in Riau alone as of Monday. Now, fire spots are also being detected in the provinces of North Sumatra, Jambi and Lampung. Evacuations may be necessary in some areas along the border of Riau and North Sumatra because pollution had reached very dangerous levels. The air pollution index reached 397 on Saturday. That means that residents must get ready to wear masks. If rains do not fall in the next few days and there are no signs of the fires subsidising, residents may have to evacuate. Officials and activists blame plantation firms, which use slash-and-burn techniques banned under environmental laws to clear land, for the fires. More than five million hectares (12.35 million acres) of forest, plantation and other land in Indonesia were destroyed by fires in 1997. A thin layer of the Sumatra smog had reached southern Thailand. The Thai meteorological office said air quality and visibility had deteriorated in the southern provinces of Songkhla, Narathiwat, Yala and Pattani over the last week. Residents in the southern town of Hat Yai reported reduced visibility since early this week. The resort islands of Phuket and Samui are to the north of the affected area. Three northern states, including the resort island of Penang, have been swathed in smoke since Friday but on Wednesday reported that air quality levels were no longer unhealthy.
(Source: Environmental News Network, Wednesday 19 July 2000)

 

The Meteorological Service of Singapore reports on 19 July 2000 for the South East Asian region: "Sumatra was affected by less hot spots due to scattered showers/thunderstorms. Isolated hot spots were also detected over Borneo. The smoke/haze situation in Sumatra should ease slightly." Forecasts of winds and surface pressure are also available.

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Regional Surface Winds and Haze/Fire Map, 19 July 2000
(Source: Meteorological Service of Singapore)

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Hot spots (red dots) and smoke haze detected by NOAA 12 and 14 in central and northern Sumatra and western Kalimantan on 19 July 2000
(Source: Meteorological Service of Singapore)

 

The same meteorological service also provides rainfall-record charts for selected locations in Sumatra and Kalimantan with information about the mean annual rainfall and the actual monthly and weekly records for this year.

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Rainfall charts for Sumatra and Kalimantan
(Source: Meteorological Service of Singapore)

 

The GFMC displays selected and daily updated global and Asia-Pacific Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC)  Fire Weather Forecasts. These examples allow a quicklook and provide daily and weekly total forecasts, and forecasted monthly totals (for next month). For background information refer to the ECPC products description page.

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tomorrow next week next month

Fire Weather Index (FWI) forecast for tomorrow (left), next week (center) and the predicted FWI total for next month (right) for the Western Pacific and the Pacific Ocean. The daily forecast refers to 12:00 hrs noon UTC (Greenwich) time; the weekly total forecast and the monthly forecasted total refer to 00:00 hrs UTC, which is local noon at dateline (180° longitude). Forecast time is 12:00 hrs noon UTC (Greenwich) corresponding to local evening time in mainland and insular SE Asia (updated: 20 July 2000).
(Source: ECPC)

 

The ASEAN Fire Weather Information System (ASFWIS) is a co-operation between ASEAN and the Canadian Forest Service. It provides maps describing the current fire weather situation in South East Asia. This system is based upon the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS) (for further infomation to the CFFDRS refer to ASFWIS). Studies have shown that the CFFDRS is applicable outside of Canada. Currently it is also used in a modified form in New Zealand (see References). In New Zealand the Fire Weather Indices Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC) and the Initial Spread Index (ISI) represent the fire danger in the scrublands. The Duff Moisture Code (DMC) is also applicable in South East Asia, because it potentially describes the moisture state of the upper peat layers in peat and peat swamp forests. All three parameters may serve as a suitable indicator of forest fire danger in South East Asia.

According to the ASFWIS for 19 July 2000 these parameters show various fire weather conditions over South East Asia:

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Fine Fuel Moisture Code

Duff Moisture Code

Drought Code

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Initial Spread Index

Buildup Index

Fire Weather Index

Output maps of the ASFWIS (update 20 July 2000)


The ASEAN Haze Action Online provides the following information:

The Forest Fire Prevention and Control Project (FFPCP) in Palembang (Sumatra) provided a fire overview map for 19 July 2000.

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Fire Overview Map for 19 July 2000 for Sumatra
(Source: FFPCP)


The Integrated Forest Fire Management Project (IFFM) in Samarinda (East Kalimantan) detected 20 hot spots on 19 July 2000.

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Hot spot map of Kalimantan for 19 July 2000
(Source: IFFM)

The Southwest Monsoon has set in and with it the onset of generally dry weather over Singapore and the surrounding region. As the south-west winds increase in strength and persistency in the next 3 to 4 months, periods of dry weather can be expected from time to time. With each spell of relatively dry weather, increased forest fires and accompanying hotspots are likely. However, the prolonged widespread dry weather experienced in 1997 as a result of the strong El Nino is not likely to develop this year. As the current La Nina continues to weaken for the rest of the year, weather conditions are expected to return to normal. Hence in the current Southwest Monsoon season, while weather conditions are expected to be generally dry, occasional widespread squally pre-dawn and early morning showers are expected in the region on about 3 to 4 times per month between May and October. The occurrence of the widespread showers should help to prevent the recurrence of a similar 1997 widespread and prolonged smoke haze episode in the region. (Source: Meteorological Service of Singapore)

 

For further information, please also have a look to the current and archived IFFN Country Notes.


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