14th Committee of Forestry (COFO)

 

14th Committee of Forestry(COFO)

Presentation at COFO Side Meeting on Forest Fires (2 March 1999)

Follow-up Activities in Response to Recommendations From the Fire Meeting

In the four months following the Fire meeting, activities in response to recommendations have tended to concentrate on technical aspects to support policy formulation and implementation. This has been done to establish the groundwork for long-term policy development and to complement and build upon the on-going regular programme activities.

One of the recommendations from the meeting is for an internationally harmonised fire management terminology to support global or regional fire reporting systems.

To help achieve this, FAO is revising the FAO paper No. 70 Wildland Fire Terminology in collaboration with members of the global fire community.

Once fire terminology is agreed upon the recommendation to support the design of a global fire inventory or reporting system is the next sequential step to be taken.

A planning and information assessment for forest fires as a component of forest resource assessment (FRA 2000) is planned which will include a review of existing information sources, identify gaps and provide recommendations for a framework for collecting fire data -including causes of fires at national level.

This will be carried out in collaboration with other agencies responsible for data collation including –UN Economic Commission for Europe (ECE) Timber Committee,- EU, and the Global Fire Monitoring Centre operated through the Fire Ecology Research Group, University of Freiburg.

A decentralised database for Forest Fires in the Mediterranean which is compatible with the existing EU database -is also being realised through the framework of a French trust fund project in support of Silva Mediterranea and the Mediterranean Forest Action Programme.

Through this same French trust fund an analysis of the present situation of community involvement in forest fire prevention and control is being carried out in participating countries which include Cyprus, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia and Syria.

These analyses will provide a model for six regional case studies on management of forest fire through involvement of local communities, presently being discussed with the fire community.

Training needs in forest fire management are being addressed; -for example in Turkey – training is being carried out through a technical co-operation project (TCP) which has also provided the opportunity to formulate national policies for forest fire management.

Audiovisual training materials for the Mediterranean are also being made available.

Lastly- using limited available funds, regular programme resources are being strengthened for action on environmental emergencies, including forest fires.

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Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)

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Food and Agriculture Organizationof the United Nations (FAO)

The FAO programme in forestry addresses one of the most important, complex and controversial issues of modern times – how to conserve the world’s forests, while also using trees and forests to contribute to the economic, social and environmental well-being of the world’s rapidly expanding population. Through provision of a neutral forum for policy and technical dialogue; information and advice; and direct technical cooperation, FAO helps member countries to conserve trees, forests and the biological diversity they contain, and sustainably derive products and services from them. 

FAO Forest Fire Website

As part of its forestry programme, for more than 50 years FAO has provided information and technical assistance in the area of forest fire management. For general information on the global fire situation; information on FAO forest fire management activities; and information on the International Meeting on Public Policies Affecting Forest Fires (28-30 October, Rome Italy).

The regional papers and the presentations given at the are available through the FAO and UN bookshops. Bibliographical reference:
FAO (1999). Meeting on Public Policies Affecting Forest Fires, Rome, 28-30 October 1998. FAO Forestry Paper 138. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, Rome, Italy.

Rome Declaration on Forestry, as adopted by the Ministerial Meeting on Forestry, FAO, 9 March 1999

The FAO convened the Ministerial Meeting on Forestry on “Sustainability Issues in Forestry, the National and International Challenges”, Rome, 8-9 March 1999. On 9 March 1999 the Forest Ministers released the “Rome Declaration on Forestry”. The statements regarding forest fires are based on the resumée “Global Action to Address Forest Fires” which was a summary of the recommendations of the Expert Meeting on Public Policies Affecting Forest Fires.

The Ministerial Meeting, among other, welcomed the

recommendations the Fourteenth Session of the Committee on Forestry (COFO) (Rome, 2 March 1999) and encouraged their endorsement by the FAO Council with a view to facilitating their early implementation.

FAO Global Forest Fire Assessment 1990-2000

The FAO Global Forest Fire Assessment 1990-2000 is part of the FAO Forest Resources Assessment (FRA) 2000,  Working Paper No. 55 and has been prepared by J.G. Goldammer (The Global Fire Monitoring Center) and Robert W. Mutch (Fire Management Applications).

The report (495 p., PDF-File, size: 6 MB) can be downloaded on the

FAO Fire Website or here on the GFMC.

FAO/ITTO International Expert Meeting on Forest Fire Management
A FAO/ITTO International Expert Meeting on Forest Fire Management was held in Rome, Italy, 7-9 March 2001. The meeting was held in follow-up to the FAO meeting on Public Policies Affecting Forest Fires, held in Rome in October 1998, which identified the need for support to the development of regional and bilateral Agreements for collaboration in forest fire management, including identification of technical and financial inputs; improved sharing of information and knowledge, and support to strengthened technical cooperation among developing countries i.a. through networking and twinning; and identification of the roles which FAO and other international organisations could play in this regard, including technical assistance, institutional support and capacity-building.
The report of the meeting has been published in the pages of International Forest Fire News (IFFN No. 24 – April 2001, p. 78-98).

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Rome Declaration on Forestry, 9 March 1999

 

Rome Declaration on Forestry

9 March 1999

We, the ministers responsible for forests or their representatives who met at FAO Headquarters in Rome, Italy on 8 and 9 March 1999 at the second Ministerial Meeting on Forestry under the sponsorship of the FAO, to consider “Sustainability Issues in Forestry, the National and International Challenges,”

emphasizing the critical importance of forests to the welfare, livelihood and food security of all people and future generations and to the life support system of the entire planet, as set forth in the 1995 Rome Statement on Forestry and in the 1996 World Food Summit Plan of Action,

deeply concerned with the important challenges associated with forest loss and degradation in many regions and stressing the need to maintain the integrity of forests as ecosystems by promoting sustainable forest management worldwide,

noting that this Ministerial Meeting was convened by the Director-General of FAO to highlight the critical need to make national and international progress toward the sustainable management of the world’s forests, and to consider international instruments to support sustainable forest management, global action to address forest fires, and the Strategic Framework for FAO 2000 – 2015,

welcoming the progress made to date on sustainable forest management, including FAO’s role in the assessment of forest resources, and the significant achievements at national, regional and international levels, including the development and implementation of criteria and indicators for sustainable forest management and of national forest programmes,

noting that the Intergovernmental Forum on Forests (IFF), which was established under the auspices of the United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development with a time-limited mandate, is considering issues related to sustainable forest management, including international arrangements and mechanisms,

also noting a range of options for international arrangements and mechanisms to support sustainable forest management, including voluntary, incentive-based approaches; private sector initiatives; regional agreements and initiatives; and global legally binding and non-legally binding instruments,

further noting that a number of international arrangements and mechanisms already exist which address and have implications for the environmental, social and economic aspects of sustainable forest management, and that the need for and nature of future international arrangements and mechanisms should be considered in more depth by the UN Commission on Sustainable Development at its eighth session in the year 2000 as a matter of priority,

recognize that this Ministerial Meeting provides an opportunity to exchange views on international arrangements and mechanisms and provide high level political support to the ongoing discussions at the Intergovernmental Forum on Forests,

call on FAO to facilitate and give support to national, regional and international processes related to forests, especially enhancing the implementation of national forest programmes and criteria and indicators for sustainable forest management,

noting that the causes of forest fires are many and complex and recognizing the need to harness efforts to prevent forest fires as well as to address the multiple causes and consequences of fires around the globe,

welcome the meeting on Public Policies Affecting Forest Fires hosted by FAO in October 1998 and encourage FAO to take action to implement the recommendations directed to it,

call on FAO and other international organizations, donor agencies and interested countries to work together to address the underlying causes of forest fires, to improve the coordination of their efforts to prevent and combat forest fires and to rehabilitate affected areas with a view to providing assistance requested by governments,

noting the draft Strategic Framework for FAO 2000 – 2015 that will be considered by the FAO Conference in November 1999 highlights the critical need for countries to implement integrated approaches to sustainable development, including combatting desertification and drought, which recognize the importance of the sustainable management of forests and their ecosystems in achieving sustainable agriculture and food security,

also noting that forests can be adversely affected by policies outside the forest sector, including agriculture and trade policies, and recognize the need for integrated land use and mutually supportive trade and environment policies in support of sustainable forest management,

underscore the importance of inter-disciplinary and cross-sectoral approaches to forest management, participatory decision making in development taking into account gender balance, and increased cooperation, including through partnerships, between the public and private sectors to achieve sustainable forest management and sustainable development,

encourage national, regional and international efforts to increase public awareness of the importance of forests and strengthen education, research, extension and the dissemination of knowledge and information to improve forest management,

call on all interested parties to give greater priority to sustainable forest management; reaffirm the proposals for action agreed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Forests regarding international co-operation in financial assistance and technology transfer; recognize the need to build capacity for sustainable forest management in public and private sectors at local, national and international levels; and urge FAO to allocate adequate financial resources to forestry,

welcome the recommendations the Fourteenth Session of the Committee on Forestry (COFO) and encouraged their endorsement by the FAO Council with a view to facilitating their early implementation.

We pledge our political will to bear on improving forest management in our respective countries and to promote effective international cooperation to achieve sustainable forest management worldwide.

We further pledge

  • to work together towards a constructive and forward looking outcome on future arrangements for the global forest policy dialogue at the eighth session of the United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development;

  • to better co-ordinate and strengthen our efforts to prevent, manage, monitor and suppress forest fires especially in anticipation of the next El Niño/La Niña events and, in the longer term, to address the underlying causes of forest fires;

  • to work closely with our counterparts in other ministries in our countries to promote cross-sectoral policies and activities that support sustainable forest management.

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International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) 2

 

Fire Disasters and the
International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction
(IDNDR)

On 11 December 1987 at its 42nd session, the General Assembly of the United Nations designated the 1990’s as the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR)(Resolution 44/236 of 22 December 1989). The concept of this international programme was an initiative of the US Academy of Sciences in 1984. The basic idea behind this proclamation of the Decade was and still remains to be the unacceptable and rising levels of losses which disasters continue to incur on the one hand, and the existence, on the other hand, of a wealth of scientific and engineering know-how which could be effectively used to reduce losses resulting from disasters.

Objectives of the Decade

 The general objective of the Decade is

to reduce through concerted international actions, especially in developing countries, loss of life, property damage and economic disruption caused by natural disasters such as earthquakes, windstorms, tsunamis, floods, landslides, volcanic eruptions, wildfires and other calamities of natural origin such as grasshopper and locust infestations.

The following four goals represent the desired destinations which Decade efforts should lead to:

  1. improve the capacity of each country to mitigate the effects of natural disasters expeditiously and effectively, paying special attention to assisting developing countries in the assessment of disaster damage potential and in the establishment of early warning systems and disaster-resistant structures when and where needed;

  2. devise appropriate guidelines and strategies for applying existing scientific and technical knowledge, taking into account the cultural and economic diversity among nations;

  3. foster scientific and engineering endeavours aimed at closing critical gaps in knowledge in order to reduce loss of life and property;

  4. develop measures for the assessment, prediction, prevention and mitigation of natural disasters through programmes of technical assistance and technology transfer, demonstration projects, and education and training, tailored to specific disasters and locations, and to evaluate the effectiveness of those programmes.

Based on the above broadly defined goals, it was found necessary to focus on a number of specific areas of activities which would mark progress to be achieved at the end of the Decade period.

By the year 2000, all countries, as part of their plan to achieve sustainable development, should have in place:

  1. comprehensive national assessments of risks from natural hazards, with these assessments taken into account in development plans;

  2. mitigation plans at national and/or local levels, involving long-term prevention and preparedness and community awareness, and

  3. ready access to global, regional, national and local warning systems and broad dissemination of warnings.

To date, 120 national IDNDR Commitees and focal points have been established around the world in order to realize the Decade’s objectives. In addition a group of 25 scientific and technical experts selected on the basis of their personal capacities and qualifications and with due to regard to the diversity of disaster mitigation issues and geographical representation constitute the membership of the Scientific and Technical Committee of the IDNDR 1. Their functions include to develop programmes to be taken into account in bilateral and multilateral cooperation and to assess and evaluate the activities carried out in the Decade and to make recommendations on the overall programmmes in an annual report to the Secretary General.

1 One of the members of the International Ad Hoc Group of Experts was Phil Cheney, CSIRO Bushfire Research Unit, Canberra (Australia). He expressed his views in a publication on “Australia’s role in the IDNDR” (Resource and Environmental Studies No.4, Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, Australian National University, 1991).

 

Wildfires – “Natural Disasters” ?

In the past years there have been various successful examples of how national governments were prepared and the international community responded to disaster management support, e.g. after earthquakes, hurricanes, and floods.

What about wildfires? Are there or have there been any “wildfire disasters”? If so, has any of the goals indicated above been achieved in the sector of wildfire-caused disasters?

In the context of IDNDR, wildfires clearly have been defined as potential natural disasters. However, a global survey carried out by IDNDR shows an interesting picture. Among the 93 nations which responded to an enquiry by IDNDR a total of 49 nations considered wildfires to be an important “Prevailing Hazard” in their country. The remainder of 44 countries did not mention wildfires to be an important natural disaster threat (Tab.1).

 

Tab.1. Extracts from the information provided in national reports to the IDNDR. One of the questions directed to the countries was on “Prevailing Hazards”. In the questionnaire the countries had to state whether wildfires were considered to be a prevailing hazard or not. The total number of responses was 93. Extracted from: WCNDR Information Paper No.2 (April-94) Countries considering wildfires to be a prevailing natural hazard Countries considering wildfires not to be a prevailing natural hazard Algeria
Armenia
Australia
Azerbaijan
Bangladesh
Bermuda
Bhutan
Bulgaria
Burkina Faso
Canada
China, People’s Republic of
Dominican Republic
Egypt
Finland
Germany
Greece
Guinée, Republic of
Haiti
Hungary
Kazakhstan
Kenya
Latvia
Malaysia
Maldives
Mauritius
Mexico
Micronesia
Mongolia
Namibia
Nepal
Nigeria
Norway
Oman
Palau
Papua New Guinea
Peru
Philippines
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Russian Federation
Switzerland
Tunisia
Turkey
Union of Myanmar
United States of America
Uzbekistan
Vietnam
Western Samoa Austria
Bolivia
Botswana
British Virgin Islands
Cameroun
Chad
Columbia
Cook Island
Costa Rica
Cuba
Denmark
Ecudaor
Ethiopia
Fiji
Guatemala
Honduras
Iran
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Korea, Republic of
Kyrghyzstan
Mozambique
Netherlands
New Zealand
Nicaragua
Panama
Paraguay
Solomon Islands
South Africa
Spain
Sri Lanka
Sudan
Sweden
Tajikistan
Tanzania
Trinidad und Tobago
Turkmenistan
Tuvalu
Ukraine
United Kingdom
Vanuatu
Zaire

 

From another survey on damages caused by significant natural disasters the evaluation of wildfire-related economic and human losses were not clearly to be identified. In the preface to that survey it was defined that a “significant disaster” must meet one of the following criteria:

Damage:  >1% of total annual GNP

Number of affected people:  >1% of the total population

Number of deaths: > 100

It is clear that only a few wildfire disasters meet these criteria in order to be put into the category of “significant” disaster. However, a look to the forest fire statistics from the People’s Republic of China show that throughout the last 40 years more than 100 people annually died in forest fires on an area affected by fire of nearly one million ha per year (Tab.2).

 

Tab.2. The forest fire statistics from the People’s Republic of China for the years 1950-1990 reveal the high loss of human life due to severe wildfires (Source: Ministry of Forestry, Fire Prevention Office, Beijing).

Year Number of Fires Area Burned (x10,000 ha) Human Lives Lost Year Number of Fires Area Burned (x10,000 ha) Human Lives Lost 1950 n.a. 114.50 n.a. 1973 10,143 100.88 65 1951 5,100 225.54 51 1974 16,268 53.88 92 1952 n.a. 58.35 22 1975 13,013 94.08 67 1953 10,784 72.69 37 1976 10,328 194.33 196 1954 25,692 140.02 89 1977 17,290 257.90 133 1955 57,153 248.34 301 1978 11,859 49.30 67 1956 30,704 279.82 203 1979 25,480 99.84 154 1957 25,171 91.14 120 1980 17,608 39.65 95 1958 9,278 33.59 33 1981 12,678 40.96 70 1959 8,113 81.13 62 1982 13,453 33.68 99 1960 11,593 100.43 208 1983 12,300 17.43 111 1961 33,879 152.93 196 1984 12,100 14.18 63 1962 43,321 186.77 187 1985 8,753 13.95 44 1963 32,846 107.11 173 1986 25,851 27.95 237 1964 6,433 19.22 11 1987 12,022 115.26 226 1965 10,913 54.60 78 1988 9,300 6.28 75 1966 5,189 57.85 41 1989 9,747 4.82 55 1967 4,487 30.23 59 1990 5,628 1.44 20 1968 2,338 18.46 12

Long-Term Total and Average Data

1969 7,497 61.42 59

Total
1950-90


606,152
3,712.06
4,137 1970 6,569 76.15 79         1971 8,860 83.01 55 Average per Year 1950-90 15,951
(1953-90) 90.53
(1950-90) 104
(1951-90) 1972 16,411 184.64 187        

* 10,000 ha = 100 km2
n.a. = data not available

 

Wildfires at the UN World Conference on Natural Disaster Reduction

A World Conference on Natural Disaster Reduction, which forms a part of a mid-term review of Decade activities, was held in Yokohama (Japan) between 23-27 May 1994. The conference was the first of its kind to be held on a global level it was expected to provide a platform for the exchange of experiences between Decade partners at national, regional, and international levels.

During the UN World Conference some technical posters were exhibited, e.g. on new systems on remote sensing of fires (by Finland and Germany). The conference also provided the floor for the public presentation of the film “The Fire Experiment” 2.

The ECE/FAO Team of Specialists on Forest Fire brought the fire issue onto the table of policy makers by presenting a poster and discussing the fire issue in the Technical Committees.

2 The film “The Fire Experiment” is a one-hour film originally produced for the German TV Channel Two (ZDF) and the French-German TV Channel “Arte” and broadcasted on 20 December 1993. The film covers the preparation and execution of a fire experiment in the frame of the Fire Research Campaign Asia-North (FIRESCAN), carried out in July 1993 (see IFFN No.10, p.25-26), a brilliant report on the start of fruitful cooperation in forest fire research between East and West. The background and systematics of fire research are well translated for the general public. The English version of this film which was sponsored by UNESCO and the Foreign Office, Federal Republic of Germany, can be obtained on request from the film producer Schubert Film Production, Leopoldstr.79, D-80802 München (GERMANY), Fax ++49-89-341908 (price for a single copy: DM 198.00; for research institutions, universities, etc. DM 148.00; please request a copy compatible with your TV system, e.g. PAL or NTSC).

 

Proposal to the Annex of the Yokohama Strategy for a Safer World, submitted by the ECE/FAO/ILO Team of Specialists on Forest Fire

Outcome of the Conference

The Yokohama conference clearly recognized the still existing gaps between its vision – as formulated in the begin of the Decade – and reality. This reality is that the goals and targets are far from being achieved as one would expect after half of the Decade has passed by: many of the delegates of the 147 nations represented at the conference commented that 95% of the Decade’s work needs to be done in its second half. 

The conference unanimously accepted the declaration of the “Yokohama Strategy”. The 18-page document gives clear outlines and a plan of action although no specific disaster or action is mentioned in detail.

From the point of view of global cooperation in coping with wildfire-caused disasters, two of the recommended international activities, which were given in order to implement the IDNDR objectives, are of importance:

  • recognition of the need of adequate coordination of international disaster reduction activities and strengthening of the mechanisms established for this purpose. International coordination should relate, in particular, to the formation of development projects which provide assistance for disaster reduction and their evaluation;
  • effective coordination of international disaster management, in particular by the United Nations system, is paramount for an integrated approach to disaster reduction and should, therefore, be strengthened.

Detailed proposals of countries and organizations will be added to the strategy paper in the form of an Annex. As it had been decided at the Meeting of the ECE/FAO Team of Specialists on Forest Fire in Geneva, April 1993, a proposal was directed to the conference and will be part of the Conference Annex (see next page):

With this proposal the ECE/FAO Team of Specialists on Forest Fire intends to open a forum for discussion and further suggestions.

 

Johann G. Goldammer

Leader, ECE/FAO Team of Specialists on Forest Fire
(Address)

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IDNDR: Natural Disaster Reduction in Asia (IFFN No. 20 – March 1999)

 

Natural Disaster Reduction in Asia

(IFFN No. 20 – March 1999)

Organized by the IDNDR, in collaboration with the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) and the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC), the IDNDR-ESCAP Regional Meeting on Natural Disaster Reduction in Asia took place between 23 and 26 February 1999, in Bangkok, Thailand. It was opened by the Deputy Foreign Minister of Thailand, Mr. Sukhumbhand Paribatra. About 200 representatives of governments and organizations from 24 Asian countries attended the Regional Meeting. The Meeting reviewed the accomplishments in the region during the Decade and formulated recommendations for future efforts to ensure continued commitment to disaster prevention throughout Asia during the next millennium. Discussions were held on the economic aspects of water hazards; the urban and environmental aspects of geological hazards; and on fire and transboundary atmospheric hazards. The Bangkok Declaration, adopted at the end of the meeting, underscored the need to integrate mitigation and prevention practices into national development and planning processes. This is expected to enhance community resilience and promote political and socio-economic stability in the event of such disasters. The Declaration also encouraged sustained efforts to harness the considerable traditional knowledge and approaches for dealing with hazards and building up community capabilities and promoting private-public partnerships. Looking beyond the Decade, the Regional Meeting emphasized the need for effective coordination mechanisms within the UN System, as well as within individual countries, to promote disaster reduction and risk management during the 21st century as an integral part of sustainable development.

Bangkok Declaration of the IDNDR-ESCAP Regional Meeting for Asia, 26 February 1999, Bangkok, Thailand

The IDNDR-ESCAP Regional Meeting for Asia: Risk Reduction and Society in the 21st Century was convened at the United Nations Conference Center in Bangkok, Thailand, from 23-26 February 1999, in which more than 150 representatives of national governments, United Nations and other international organizations, technical and scientific programmes, non-governmental and community-based organizations from 24 ESCAP countries participated. The Meeting reviewed the accomplishments in the region during IDNDR and formulated recommendations for future efforts to ensure continued commitment to disaster prevention throughout Asia during the next millennium.

Following the Yokohama Strategy and Plan of Action for a Safer World: Guidelines for Natural Disaster Prevention, Preparedness and Mitigation adopted at the World Conference on Natural Disaster Reduction in 1994, several regional and national initiatives have been taken in Asia. The Regional Meeting noted the active involvement and growing participation in disaster reduction activities within the UN system, and by international organizations, national governments, professional and non-governmental organizations, community bodies, private commercial interests and other stakeholders in civil society. The role of the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center in capacity-building and awareness-raising in the region was notable during the Decade. The establishment of the Asian Disaster Reduction Center was also a significant development during the Decade.

Reflecting the views of the IDNDR Scientific and Technical Committee, the meeting underlined the importance of sustained commitments to disaster prevention by government authorities and others in order to consolidate and further the accomplishments of the Decade relating to national development in the 21st century.

Participants acknowledged that different hazards associated with tropical cyclones, water, geological conditions, wildfire, and severe climatic conditions will continue to threaten all Asian countries. The population pressure and ecological fragility of habitats in the region will aggravate the adverse impact of these hazards. In this context, the Meeting highlighted the need for drawing upon different national experiences, knowledge and professional abilities to prevent disasters. A multi-disciplinary, coordinated approach and greater awareness of policy-makers and communities will help realize appropriate, adequate and sustained allocations of human, technical and material resources for disaster prevention.

The Regional Meeting welcomed the emergence and increasing adoption of policies and practices at international, regional, national and local levels of responsibility for reducing the impact of natural disasters, rather than merely responding to them. Adoption of structured approaches to risk assessment, integration of mitigation and prevention practices into national development and planning processes, including greater commitment to land-use planning measures, and improved early warning systems will not only substantially reduce human suffering and property losses but will enhance community resilience and promote political and socio-economic stability.

The Meeting emphasized the necessity of developing new and effective ways to engage more people dedicated to disaster prevention activities in the course of their on-going work and consistent with their livelihoods throughout Asia. Sustained efforts would have to be taken for harnessing the considerable traditional knowledge and approaches for dealing with hazards and building up community capabilities and promoting private-public partnerships. Regional arrangements should be rendered more effective by ensuring exchanges of information and experience throughout the region. The Meeting recognized the assistance that has already been forthcoming from financial institutions and donors and called upon their continued support to promote the culture of prevention by supporting national disaster reduction plans on a pro-active basis to advance disaster prevention as a public value.

The Regional Meeting welcomed the convening of the IDNDR International Programme Forum and ECOSOC session, in July 1999, in bringing the Decade to a successful conclusion and in evolving recommendations for sustained disaster prevention in the future. The Meeting recognized the Programme Forum as a unique international opportunity for countries, institutions, and organizations to inform the world of the diversity and success of disaster prevention programmes in the region.

Looking beyond the Decade, the Meeting emphasized the need for effective coordination mechanisms within the United Nations system, including at the regional and sub-regional levels, as well as within individual countries, to promote disaster reduction and risk management during the 21st century as integral parts of sustainable development, including responses to global change. These should function in directing efforts to prevent and mitigate disasters due to natural, technological and environmental hazards. In particular, the Meeting urged the Secretary General of the United Nations to set up an appropriate mechanism for bringing about concerted global action. The Meeting also emphasized the importance of continuation of the functioning of the existing regional institutions and frameworks beyond the Decade.

The participants of the IDNDR-ESCAP Regional Meeting for Asia express their recognition of disaster prevention as an integral component of sustainable development in Asia. By this declaration, the Meeting calls for a holistic and integrated effort by all member countries to promote disaster prevention as a public value; to improve integrated risk management through the involvement of an increasing range of professional, technical and scientific disciplines; to strengthen and further regional and sub-regional professional and institutional frameworks; to realize meaningful participation of local communities in reducing the vulnerability of people, the environment, social and economic resources; and to enhance disaster management capabilities.

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IDNDR: Report on Early Warning for Fire and Other Environmental Hazards

United Nations
International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction
IDNDR Early Warning Programme

Report on Early Warning for
Fire and Other Environmental Hazards

Convener of International Working Group, and first Author*:

Dr. Johann G. Goldammer

Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Biogeochemistry Department
Fire Ecology Research Group, Freiburg University
Freiburg GERMANY

* Contributers are listed in Chapter V

IDNDR Secretariat, Geneva October 1997

CONTENTS

FOREWORD

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

I. INTRODUCTION

General Remarks on Fire Hazard
Recent Major Fire Events and Fire Losses
Impacts of Fire on the Environment
Early Warning Systems in Fire Management and Smoke Management
Relation to Other IDNDR Early Warning Working Group Reports

II. HAZARD ASSESSMENT AS THE BASIS OF RISK ANALYSIS

Fire Danger Rating
Use of Satellite Data to Help Assess Fire Potential
Fire Weather Forecast
Active Fire Detection by Satellite Sensors
Atmospheric Pollution Warning
Climate-Change/Fire Risk Modelling
Towards a Global Wildland Fire Information System

III. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

International Initiatives and Non-Binding International Guidelines
Science and Technology Development
Recommendations on Early Warning for Fire and Other Environmental Hazards

IV. REFERENCES

V. LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS

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Report on Early Warning for Fire and Other Environmental Hazards: FOREWORD

 

Report on Early Warning for
Fire and Other Environmental Hazards

 

FOREWORD

In 1989, the member states of the United Nations declared the period from 1990 to the year 2000 to be the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR). Its objective is to “reduce the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption caused by natural disasters, through concerted international action, especially in developing countries”.

The fundamental importance of early-warning for realizing this objective of disaster reduction was recognized in 1991. The IDNDR’s International Scientific and Technical Committee declared the subject a programme target, by which the success of the Decade would be judged by the year 2000. By drawing on global scientific knowledge and practical experience, the IDNDR advisory committee encouraged all countries to ensure the ready access to global, regional, national and local warning systems as part of their national development plans. The IDNDR Secretariat has since coordinated an international multi-disciplinary framework to promote this issue. In doing so, it has been able to draw on the comprehensive views and abilities of the United Nations system, needs and concerns of individual countries, and related global expert knowledge.

The critical nature of early-warning for the protection of vital resources and for addressing national development objectives was highlighted by a technical committee session devoted to the subject at the United Nations’ World Conference on Natural Disaster Reduction held in Yokohama, Japan in May 1994. Several of the expert presentations cited the importance of public policy commitment for successful early warning. The primary outcome of the Conference, The Yokohama Strategy for a Safer World: Guidelines for Natural Disaster Prevention, Preparedness and Mitigation further emphasized the importance of applied scientific knowledge and the public’s awareness of hazard risks as essential components for more effective early warning practices.

The IDNDR Secretariat was requested by the United Nations General Assembly in 1995 to coordinate a programme to review the existing early warning programmes within the United Nations system and to suggest means by which global practices could become better coordinated and made more effective. Initial information was conveyed by the Secretary General’s Report on Early Warning to the Fiftieth Session of the United Nations General Assembly in October 1995. At that time, a further examination of new scientific and experimental concepts for accurate and timely short-term forecasting was requested of the IDNDR for the purpose of making recommendations on the applicability and development of more effective early warning in the context of international cooperation

For the current work, six international expert working groups were convened to study different dimensions of the early warning process. Individual groups reviewed aspects of early warning as they related to geological hazards, hydrometeorological hazards including drought, fire and other environmental hazards and technological hazards. Other groups concentrated on the use and transfer of related modern technologies, and national and local capabilities pertinent to the effective use of early warning.

This present report of the expert group on Early Warning for Fire and Other Environmental Hazards represents global experience and reviews the current state of knowledge and practice on the subject. Recommendations are also made for improvements and areas that require additional international attention. The consensus views include major contributions from scientific and technical experts of different professional disciplines as well as the participation of United Nations departments and agencies concerned. An effort was made to ensure that views of government authorities, non-governmental organizations and other elements of civil society were also represented, particularly as they relate to factors which determine the efficacy of early warnings.

This report is one of a series issued by the IDNDR Secretariat in October 1997 to trace efforts in reviewing the current global state of early warning systems. By the end of the Decade, these views will contribute to final recommendations for improved, and better coordinated, practices in fulfilment of the initial IDNDR programme target for the subject. They will first be considered by an International Conference on early warning systems for the reduction of natural disasters to be held in Potsdam, Germany in September, 1998. This technical and scientific conference focussing on the application of successful warning practices will be sponsored by the Government of Germany with the collaboration of United Nations agencies and international scientific organisations. As a major topical event of the IDNDR closing process and the consolidation of global views, it will work to identify those accomplishments and local experiences which can best inform improved organizational relationships and practical effectiveness for early warning into the 21st century.

 

The following titles compose the series of information reports of the IDNDR Early Warning Programme:

Early Warning Capabilities for Geological Hazards

Early Warning for Hydrometeorological Hazards, Including Drought

Early Warning for Fire and Other Environmental Hazards

Early Warning for Technological Hazards

Earth Observation, Hazard Analysis and Communications Tech. for Early Warning

National and Local Capabilities for Early Warning

Guiding Principles for Effective Early Warning

The Secretary General’s Report on Early-warning Capacities of the United Nations System with Regard to Natural Disasters presented to the Fiftieth Session of the United Nations General Assembly, October 1995. (UN doc. A/50/526).

The Secretary General’s Report on Improved Effectiveness of Early-warning Systems With Regard to Natural and Similar Disasters presented to the Fifty-second Session of the United Nations General Assembly , October 1997. (UN doc.A/52/561).

These reports may be accessed on the IDNDR Website at www.idndr.org. They also may be obtained from the IDNDR Secretariat, Palais des Nations, CH-1211 Geneva 10 Switzerland. or by Fax: 0041-22-733-8695, or E-mail: idndr@dha.unicc.org

Table of Contents

 

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Report on Early Warning for Fire and Other Environmental Hazards: II. HAZARD ASSESSMENT AS THE BASIS OF RISK ANALYSIS

 

Report on Early Warning for
Fire and Other Environmental Hazards

 

II. HAZARD ASSESSMENT AS THE BASIS OF RISK ANALYSIS

Fire Danger Rating (Fire Risk Assessment)

Use of Satellite Data to Help Assess Fire Potential

Fire Weather Forecasts

Active Fire Detection by Satellite Sensors

Atmospheric Pollution Warning

Climate-change and Fire Risk Modelling

Towards A Global Wildland Fire Information System

Early warning systems for fire and smoke management for local, regional, and global application require early warning information at various levels. Information on current weather and vegetation dryness conditions provides the starting point of any predictive assessment. From this information the probability of risk of wildfire starts and prediction of the possibility of current fire behaviour and fire impacts can be derived. Short- to long-range fire weather forecasts allow the assessment of fire risk and severity within the forecasting period. Advanced space borne remote sensing technologies allow fire weather forecasts and vegetation dryness assessment covering large areas (local to global), at economic levels and with accuracy which otherwise cannot be met by ground-based collection and dissemination of information. Remote sensing provides also capabilities for detecting new wildfire starts, monitoring ongoing active wildfires, and, in conjunction with fire-weather forecasts, providing an early warning tool for escalating, extreme wildfire events.

Fire Danger Rating (Fire Risk Assessment)

Fire danger rating systems have been devised by fire authorities to provide early warning of conditions conducive to the onset and development of extreme wildfire events. The factors that predispose a particular location to extreme wildfire threat change over time scales that are measured in decades, years, months, days and hours. The concept of fire danger involves both tangible and intangible factors, physical processes and hazard events. By definition:

“Fire danger” is a general term used to express an assessment of both constant and variable fire danger factors affecting the inception, spread, intensity and difficulty of control of fires and the impact they cause (e.g., Chandler et al., 1983).

The constant factors in this definition are those which do not change rapidly with time but vary with location e.g. slope, fuel, resource values, etc. The variable factors are those which change rapidly with time and can influence extensive areas at one time and these are primarily the weather variables which affect fire behaviour. All the potentials referred to in the definition must be present. If there is absolutely no chance of ignition – there is no fire danger. If fuels are absent or cannot burn – there is no fire danger. If fires can start and spread but there are no values at risk as may be perceived for remote areas managed for ecological diversity, there is no fire danger for values at risk.

Fire danger rating systems produce qualitative and/or numerical indices of fire potential that can be used for guides in a variety of fire management activities including early warning of fire threat. Different systems of widely varying complexity have been developed throughout the world which reflect both the severity of the fire climate and the needs of fire management. The simplest systems use only temperature and relative humidity to provide an index of the potential for fire starts (e.g. see the Angstrom index, cf. Chandler et al., 1983). Fire danger rating systems of intermediate complexity combine measures of drought and weather as applied to a standard fuel type to predict the speed of a fire or its difficulty of suppression (e.g., McArthur 1966, 1967; Sneeuwjagt and Peet, 1985). The most complex systems have been developed in Canada (Forestry Canada Fire Danger Group, 1992) and the United States (Deeming et al., 1978) which combine measures of fuel, topography, weather and risk of ignition (both lightning and human-caused) to provide indices of fire occurrence or fire behaviour which can be used either separately or combined to produce a single index of fire load.

While a single fire danger index may be useful to provide early warning of wildfire activity over broad areas it is impossible to communicate a complete picture of the daily fire danger with a single index. Therefore, it is necessary to break fire danger rating into its major components to appreciate where early warning systems for single factors fall into the overall picture of fire danger rating. These fall into three broad categories of changes in fuel load; changes in fuel availability or combustion and changes in weather variables that influence fire spread and intensity.

Early warning of fire precursors

Changes in fuel load

In all fire danger rating systems fuel load is assumed to be constant although specific fuel characteristics may be formulated for specific forest or other vegetation types as in the Canadian fire danger rating system or for specific fuel models i.e. combinations of vegetation and fuel with similar characteristics as in the U.S. National Fire Danger Rating System. These fuel models may overlook major shifts in total fuel loads which may be changing over periods of decades or even centuries. Fuel changes start immediately after the cessation of cultural or agricultural burning. This change usually runs in parallel with increased suppression efficiency whereby small fires under moderate fire danger conditions are suppressed early in their life. In this scenario fire authorities and the general public may be lulled into a false sense of security because the potential for high-intensity forest fires is not manifest except under rare events of extreme weather. In places this may be complicated by the introduction of exotic forest species (e.g. the establishment of eucalypt forests on formerly oak woodland savannahs in central California) and a shift of the population from living in relatively low-fuel areas which were maintained either by frequent burning through cultural or agricultural practices, or though frequent low-intensity wildfires.

Thus, the first element of early warning for a potential fire risk is a major shift in the total forest fuel complex towards denser forests with a large build up of surface debris and a change in vulnerability of the population by living more intimately with these fuels. Over the last 20 years this change has occurred in the urban/forest intermix associated with most of the centres of population located in forest regions of many of the more developed countries.

Fuel availability

The seasonal change in fuel availability as fuels dry out during the onset of the fire danger period sets the stage for severe wildfires. Under drought conditions more of the total fuel complex is available for combustion. Deep litter beds and even organic soils may dry out and become combustible. Large fuels such as downed logs and branches may burn completely. Drought stress on living vegetation not only reduces the moisture content of the green foliage but also dried plant matter such as leaves and bark can be shed adding to the total load of the surface fuel. Under extreme drought conditions normally moist areas such as swamps and creek lines dry out and are no longer a barrier to the spread of fires as might be expected in a normal fire season. Long-term moisture deficiency in itself cannot be used to forecast critical fire situations because if the smaller fine fuels are wet or green, serious fires will not occur at any time of the year. However, most devastating fires occur when severe fire weather variables are combined with extreme drought.

There are a number of bookkeeping methods of monitoring the seasonal development of drought. The Keetch-Byram (1968) Drought Index is a number representing the net effect of evapotranspiration and precipitation in producing a cumulative measure of moisture deficiency in the deep duff and soil layers. It is a continuous index which can be related to the changes in fuel availability mentioned above and the occurrence of severe fires. The Index has proved to be a useful early warning tool and is now incorporated into the US National Fire Danger Rating System (Pyne et al., 1996) and the Australian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (McArthur, 1967).

There are a number of similar drought indices used elsewhere in the world. For example, the drought code component of the Canadian Fire Weather Index System (Forestry Canada Fire Danger Group, 1992), the Australian Mount Soil Dryness Index (Mount, 1972) and the Drought Index used in France (Orieux, 1974, cited from Chandler et al., 1983).

Although drought indices can be built into a broader fire danger rating system they are most effective as an early warning system when they are maintained separately and charted to illustrate the progressive moisture deficit for a specific location. This allows the fire manager to compare the current season with historical records of past seasons. The fire manager can also make associations between level of drought index and levels of fire activity which are specific to the region. This overcomes the problems caused by variation of both forest and soil type which can mask the recognition of severe drought when a drought index is applied across broad areas.

Weather Variables

Regular charting of bookkeeping-type systems such as the Keetch-Byram Drought Index or the Mount Soil Dryness Index are particularly useful in monitoring the effects of below-average rainfall during the normal wet or winter season. Moisture deficits from the previous dry season may be carried over winter. As the next fire season develops, high levels of drought may occur early in the season when, under the normal seasonal pattern, large and intense fires rarely occur. In some parts of the world there are indices which indicate the changes in the global circulation patterns which may provide warning as much as 6 to 9 months in advance of extremely dry conditions. One of these is the Southern Oscillation Index which records the difference in atmospheric pressure between Darwin in the north of the country and Melbourne in southern Australia which can be related to the El Niño events in the southern Pacific Ocean. When the Southern Oscillation Index is strongly positive wetter than normal conditions are expected in south-eastern Australia; when the index is strongly negative drought conditions are forecast for the south-east of Australia.

Early warning of fire behaviour

The fire spread component of fire danger rating systems is designed to combine the weather elements affecting fire behaviour and provide a prediction of how fires will change hourly during the day. Most indices use 24 hour precipitation, and daily extremes or hourly measurements of temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed to predict the rate of spread of forest fires. In some systems, notably the U.S. National Fire Danger Rating System and the Canadian Fire Weather Index System, indices of fire spread are combined with a long-term measure of drought to provide an index of the total severity of the fire. This is termed a Burning Index in the United States system or a Fire Weather Index in the Canadian system.

In some systems the risk of ignition from either lightning activity or human activities is calculated to form an index of fire occurrence which can be combined with a Burning Index to give an overall Fire Load Index (e.g. Deeming et al., 1978). These are rarely used in the U.S.A. today (Pyne et al., 1996). The risk of ignition by lightning is calculated separately and areas with historical records of high human-caused ignitions are mapped as a constant fire danger variable and are used in concert with a burning index to calculate fire threat in a wildfire threat analysis system.

Fire spread indices are essentially weather processors (Andrews, 1991) and the data required to provide early warning of severe fire conditions, depends primarily on the ability to provide adequate space and time forecasts of the weather. The synoptic systems which are likely to produce severe fire weather are generally well known but the ability to predict their onset depends largely on the regularity of movement and formation of atmospheric pressure systems. In Australia the genesis of severe fire weather synoptic systems has, at times, been recognised up to three days in advance; more often less than 24 hours warning is available before the severity of fire weather variables can be determined. Extended and long range forecasts contain greater uncertainty, and there is less confidence in fire severity forecasts at these time scales. Even so, these forecasts are useful in fire management in that the forecasts can be used to develop contingency plans, that is, developing options, but not implementing them until the forecasts are more certain.

As improved fire behaviour models for specific fuel types are developed there is an increasing need to separate the functions of fire danger and fire spread (Cheney, 1991). A regional fire weather index based on either fire spread or suppression difficulty in a standard fuel type and uniform topography is required to provide public warnings, setting fire restrictions, and establishing levels of readiness for fire suppression. At a local level, fire spread models which predict the development and spread of a fire across the landscape through different topography and through a number of fuel types are required for suppression planning and tactical operations. However, these systems can be confusing on a broader scale by providing too much detail. They may be influenced by atypical variations of critical factors at the measuring site and may lose the broad-scale appreciation of regional fire danger that is required for early warning purposes.

Use of Satellite Data to Help Assess Fire Potential

The amount of living vegetation, and its moisture content, has a strong effect on the propagation and severity of wildland fires. The direct observation of vegetation greenness is therefore essential for any early warning system. Current assessment of living vegetation moisture relies on various methods of manual sampling. While these measurements are quite accurate, they are difficult to obtain over broad areas, so they fail to portray changes in the pattern of vegetation greenness and moisture across the landscape.

The current polar orbiting meteorological satellites provide the potential for delivering greenness information and other parameters needed for fire management and fire impact assessment at daily global coverage at coarse spatial resolution (cf. Following section on Active Fire Detection by Satellite Sensors; see also Kendall et al., 1997). This is achieved using wide angle scanning radiometers with large instantaneous fields of view, e.g. the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) instrument which measures reflected and emitted radiation in multiple channels including visible, near-infrared, middle-infrared, and thermal (Kidwell, 1991). Because of its availability, spatial resolution, spectral characteristics, and low cost, NOAA AVHRR has become the most widely used satellite data set for regional fire detection and monitoring. Currently, AVHRR data are used for vegetation analyses and in the detection and characterization of active flaming fires, smoke plumes, and burn scars.

Since 1989 the utility of using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to monitor seasonal changes in the quantity and moisture of living vegetation has been investigated (Tucker, 1977, 1980; Tucker and Sellers, 1986; Holben, 1986; Tucker and Choudhury, 1987; Goward et al., 1990). Daily AVHRR data are composited into weekly images to remove most of the cloud and other deleterious effects, and an NDVI image of the continental U.S. is computed by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Earth Resources Observation Systems Data Center (EDC). These weekly images are obtained via the Internet and further processed into images that relate to fire potential (Burgan and Hartford, 1993; Burgan et al., 1996) and that are more easily interpreted by fire managers.

Vegetation greenness information: An early warning indicator

Four separate images are derived from the NDVI data — Visual Greenness, Relative Greenness, Departure from Average Greenness, and Live Shrub Moisture.

Visual greenness is simply NDVI rescaled to values ranging from 0 to 100, with low numbers indicating little green vegetation. Relative greenness maps portray how green each 1 km square pixel is in relation to the historical range of NDVI observations for that pixel. The Departure from Average Greenness maps portray how green the vegetation is compared to the average NDVI value determined from historical data for the same week of the year. Use of this map, along with the Visual and Relative Greenness maps, can give fire managers a good indication of relative differences in vegetation condition across the nation and how that might affect fire potential.

Live Shrub Moisture: The National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDR) used by the United States requires live shrub and herbaceous vegetation moisture as inputs to the mathematical fire model (Burgan and Hartford, 1996). For this reason, and to help fire managers estimate live shrub moistures across the landscape, Relative Greenness is used in an algorithm to produce live shrub moistures ranging from 50 to 250 percent.

These maps may be viewed at http://www.fs.fed.us/land/wfas/welcome.html.

Development of fire hazard maps

Improvement in the spatial definition of fire potential requires use of a fire danger fuel model map to portray the spatial distribution of fuel types. In the U.S.A. the Geological Survey’s Earth Resources Observation Systems Data Center (EDC) used a series of eight monthly composites of NDVI data for 1990 to produce a 159 class vegetation map of the continental U.S. at 1 km resolution (Loveland et al., 1991). Data from 2560 fuel observation plots randomly scattered across the U.S. permitted the development of a 1 km resolution fuel model map from the original vegetation map. This fuel model map is now being used in two systems to provide broadscale fire danger maps.

Integration of satellite data into fire danger estimates

The state of Oklahoma in the United States provides a good example for early warning of wildfires. The state operates an automated weather station network that consists of 111 remote stations at an average spacing of 30 km. Observations are relayed to a central computer every 15 minutes. Cooperative work between the Intermountain Fire Sciences Laboratory (U.S. Forest Service) and the Oklahoma State University resulted in development of a fire danger rating system that produces map outputs (Carlson et al., 1996). The satellite-derived NFDR fuel model map is used to define the fuel model for each 1 km pixel, and the weekly Relative Greenness maps are used to calculate live fuel moisture input for the fire danger calculations. This results in a fire danger map showing a smooth transition of fire danger across the state. These maps may be viewed at http://radar.metr.ou.edu/agwx/fire/data.html.

A goal of fire researchers in the U.S. is to expand the techniques provided for Oklahoma to other states and nations. An alternative method of estimating fire potential has been developed (Burgan and others, in prep.) using just the 1 km resolution fire danger fuel model map, relative greenness, and interpolated moisture for dead fuels about 1.25 cm in diameter. This map was found to be highly correlated with fire occurrences for California and Nevada for the years 1990 to 1995 (Klaver et al., 1997). It is now being, or will be, further tested by Spain, Chile, Argentina, and Mexico as part of an effort between the Intermountain Fire Sciences Laboratory and the EDC, sponsored by the Pan American Institute for Geography and History. The Fire Potential Map is updated daily and can be seen at http://www.fs.fed.us/land/wfas/welcome.html under “experimental products”.

While these examples, and many other published papers (Chuvieco, 1995), indicate the usefulness of current satellite data for fire management purposes, it is obvious that satellite data will become ever more useful and accurate. Instruments that will be flown on the “Mission to Planet Earth” hold great promise for several fire management requirements, such as fire detection, fuel mapping, monitoring seasonal greening and curing.

Fire Weather Forecasts

Improved fire weather forecasts are needed at a variety of time and space scales. At large space and time scales, accurate fire weather forecasts have potential for long range planning to allocate scarce resources. At smaller time and space scales, accurate fire weather forecasts have potential use in alerting, staging and planning the deployment of fire suppression crews and equipment. At the smallest time and space scales, accurate fire weather forecasts can be helpful in fighting fires as well as determining optimal periods for setting prescribed silvicultural fires (Fosberg and Fujioka, 1987; Roads et al., 1991, 1997).

Current U.S. fire weather forecasts are prepared from short-range weather forecasts (1-2 days) by the Eta model of the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), other model output statistics, and human judgment. These fire weather forecasts include information about precipitation, wind, humidity, and temperature.

To test whether even longer range forecasts focused on fire weather products would be useful, an experimental modelling system, developed at the U.S. National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) for making short-range global to regional weather forecasts, is currently being developed at the Scripps Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC). Although this system is currently focused on making and disseminating experimental global to regional fire weather forecasts focused for Southern California, it could be easily transported and applied anywhere else in the world.

Global to regional fire-weather forecasts

At the largest space and time scales, a modelling system utilizes NCEP’s MRF or GSM (global spectral model; see Kalnay et al. 1996). A high resolution regional spectral model (RSM; see Juang and Kanamitsu, 1994) is nested within the global model by first integrating the GSM which provides initial and low spatial resolution model parameters as well as lateral boundary conditions for the RSM. The RSM then predicts regional variations influenced more by the higher resolution orography and other land distributions within a limited but high resolution domain (Kalnay et al., 1996).

Global to regional forecasts of the fire weather index and precipitation are currently displayed on the world-wide web site of the ECPC at http://meteoral.ucsd.edu/ecpc/special/globaltoregional/.

Due to bandwidth limitations of the Internet, only the complete initial and 72-hour forecasts for the global model are transferred four times daily (at 0000, 0600, 1200, 1800 hrs. UCT). From these global initial and boundary conditions, regional forecasts at 25 km resolution are then made and also displayed.

Future work

New features are under development. Besides beginning development of longer-range monthly global to regional forecasts, the current fire weather forecasting methodology will be validated. Experimental global to regional forecasts for other regions are also under development. Provision of additional output of corresponding land surface variables such as snow, soil and vegetation moisture are now being extracted and may soon be provided as part of the forecasts. These additional variables are needed to transform fire weather indices into fire danger indices, which include vegetation stresses.

Active Fire Detection by Satellite Sensors

The middle-infrared and thermal AVHRR bands of the NOAA polar-orbiting satellites have been used for identifying fires. Several techniques are currently used to detect active fires at regional scales using multi-spectral satellite data. A comprehensive validation of AVHRR active fire detection techniques through a range of atmospheric and surface conditions has not yet been performed. A number of studies, however, have provided some level of validation.

Limitations in AVHRR fire detection

Even in full configuration, with two NOAA satellites in operation, the AVHRR data provides only a limited sampling of the diurnal cycle. The orbital characteristics of the satellites result in two daytime and two nighttime orbits per location. The afternoon overpass provides the best coverage in terms of fire detection and monitoring in tropical and subtropical regions (Justice and Dowty, 1994). In addition, the afternoon overpass enables detection of the full range of parameters described (i.e. vegetation state, active fires, burn scars, smoke).

Perhaps the most fundamental problem to AVHRR fire detection is that analysis is limited to relatively cloud-free areas. This can be a serious issue in tropical and sub-tropical regions. Cloud cover can cause an underestimation in the extent and frequency of burning, and limits the ability to track vegetation parameters. This issue is not limited to the NOAA satellite system. Dense clouds will prevent detection of the surface by all visible and infrared sensors. A satisfactory methodology for estimating the amount of burning missed through cloud obscuration has yet to be developed.

Due to characteristics of the NOAA meteorological satellites described it is possible to collect near real-time information to support fire management activities.

Automatic fire alerts

A prototype software has been developed in Finland for automatic detection of forest fires using NOAA AVHRR data. Image data are received by the Finnish Meteorological Institute. From each received NOAA AVHRR scene a sub-scene covering as much as possible of the monitoring area is extracted (approximately 1150 square km).

The processing includes: detection and marking of image lines affected by reception errors, image rectification, detection of “hot spots”, elimination of false alarms, and generation of alert messages by e-mail and telefax.

A fully automatic system has been developed to detect forest fires using data from NOAA AVHRR. The prototype system has been developed in Finland and tested in four experiments in 1994-1997 in Finland and its neighbouring countries Estonia, Latvia, Russian Carelia, Sweden and Norway. For each detected fire, a telefax including data on the location of the fire, the observation time and a map showing the location, is sent directly to the local fire authorities. Nearly all detected fires were forest fires or prescribed burnings.

The screening of false alarms is an essential technique in fire detection if the results are to be used in fire control. Effective screening enables fully automatic detection of forest fires, especially if known sources of error like steel factories are eliminated. In the experiments in 1994-96, most of the detected fires that were in areas where verification was possible, were real fires. This shows that space borne detection of forest fires has potential for fire control purposes.

Atmospheric Pollution Warning

The drought and fire episodes in Southeast Asia between 1992 and 1994 and again now in 1997 (September-October) resulted in severe atmospheric pollution. The regional smog events of 1991 and 1994 triggered a series of regional measures towards cooperation in fire and smoke management. In 1992 and 1995 regional workshops on “Transboundary Haze Pollution” were held in Balikpapan (Indonesia) and Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia). This was followed by the establishment of a “Haze Technical Task Force” during the Sixth Meeting of the ASEAN Senior Officials on the Environment (ASOEN) (September 1995). The task force is chaired by Indonesia and comprises senior officials from Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. The objectives of the work of the task force is to operationalize and implement the measures recommended in the ASEAN Cooperation Plan on Transboundary Pollution relating to atmospheric pollution, including particularly the problem of fire and smoke (ASEAN, 1995a,b; Goldammer, 1997a,b).

First regional cooperation plans include the use of satellite data to predict smoke pollution from wildfires based on detection of active fires and smoke plumes and the forecast of air mass trajectories. In addition, some Southeast Asian countries have developed an air quality index for early warning of smoke-generated health and visibility problems.

In Singapore air quality is monitored by 15 permanent stations and reported using the Pollutant Standard Index (PSI), a set of criteria devised by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The PSI value of 100 equals legal air quality standard (or limit) and is based on risk to human health (primary standard) or non-human health (animals, plants; secondary standard). Under this system, the levels of key pollutants like sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O3) and respirable suspended particles (PM10) are used to come up with a single index, the PSI. The PSI is a health-related index, averaged over a 24-hour period, on a scale of 0-500.

Another potentially useful tool for analysing fire-generated smoke sources, as detected or monitored by space borne sensors, is the rose-diagram technique (Brivio et al., 1997). In conjunction with trajectory analysis this spatial analysis technique allows to establish the relationships between smoke pollution and the potential sources, e.g. wildfires vs. industrial pollution.

Climate-change and Fire Risk Modelling

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has recently concluded that “the observed increase in global mean temperature over the last century (0.3-0.6° C) is unlikely to be entirely due to natural causes, and that a pattern of climate response to human activities is identifiable in the climatological record” (IPCC, 1995). In Canada and Russia, for instance, this pattern of observed changes has taken the form of major winter and spring warming in west-central and northwestern Canada and virtually all of Siberia over the past three decades, resulting in temperature increases of 2-3° C over this period (Environment Canada, 1995).

Numerous General Circulation Models (GCMs) project a global mean temperature increase of 0.8-3.5° C by 2100 AD, a change much more rapid than any experienced in the past 10,000 years. Most significant temperature changes are projected at higher latitudes and over land. While GCM projections vary, in general summer temperatures are expected to rise 4-6° C over much of Canada and Russia with a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. In addition, changes in the regional and temporal patterns and intensity of precipitation are expected, increasing the tendency for extreme droughts associated with an increase of fire risk and severity.

In the lower latitudes and in coastal regions the expected changes in temperatures, precipitation and dry season length will be less pronounced than in higher latitudes and in continental regions. However, the manifold interactions between changing climate and human-caused disturbances of ecosystems may result in change of fire regimes in the densely populated regions of the tropics and subtropics (Goldammer and Price, 1997; see para.4.6.3).

Modelling climate change and forest fire potential in boreal forests

Despite their coarse spatial and temporal resolution, GCMs provide the best means currently available to project future climate and forest fire danger on a broad scale. However, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) currently under development (e.g. Caya et al., 1995), with much higher resolution, will permit more accurate regional-scale climate projections. In recent years GCM outputs have been used to estimate the magnitude of future fire problems. Flannigan and Van Wagner (1991) used results from three early GCMs to compare seasonal fire weather severity under a 2xCO2 climate with historical climate records, and determined that fire danger would increase by nearly 50% across Canada with climate warming. Wotton and Flannigan (1993) used the Canadian GCM to predict that fire season length across Canada would increase by 30 days in a 2xCO2 climate. An increase in lightning frequency across the northern hemisphere is also expected under a doubled CO2 scenario (Fosberg et al., 1990; Price and Rind, 1994). In a recent study (Fosberg et al., 1996) used the Canadian GCM, along with recent weather data, to evaluate the relative occurrence of extreme fire danger across Canada and Russia, and showed a significant increase in the geographical expanse of the worst fire danger conditions in both countries under a warming climate.

In a recent study (Stocks et al., 1997), Canadian and Russian fire weather data from the 1980’s were used, the warmest decade on record in Canada (Gullet and Skinner, 1992), in conjunction with outputs from four recent GCMs, to compare the spatial distribution of current seasonal levels of fire weather severity across both countries with those projected under a 2xCO2 climate.

Daily May – August weather data was collected for the 1980’s for 224 Russian and 191 Canadian climate stations. Local noon measurements of temperature, relative humidity, windspeed and precipitation were used to calculate the component codes and indices of the Canadian Fire Weather (FWI) System (Van Wagner, 1987) for each station. Daily FWI values were then converted to Daily Severity Rating (DSR) values using a technique developed by Williams (1959) and modified by Van Wagner (1970). This severity rating technique permits the integration of fire severity over periods of various lengths, from daily (DSR) through monthly (MSR) to seasonal (SSR) values. In this analysis both MSR and SSR values are used. The FWI System provides an assessment of relative fire potential based solely on weather observations, and does not take forest type into consideration.

The following shows an example of possible conclusions: The monthly progression of modelled MSR under a 2xCO2 climate indicates an earlier start to the fire season, with significant increases in the geographical extent of extreme fire danger in May. The month of June shows the most significant increase, however, with virtually all of Siberia and western Canada under extreme fire danger conditions during that period. A more modest increase is observed in July and August. The seasonal pattern changes indicate an earlier annual start of high to extreme fire severity, and a later end to the fire season across Canada and Russia as a whole, although there are important regional variances from this pattern.

Changes in the area in each fire danger class are perhaps more important than absolute value changes in MSR. Dramatic changes in the areal extent of high to extreme fire danger in both countries under a doubled CO2 climate were observed. In general, there is a decrease in moderate MSR and SSR levels, and a significant increase in the area experiencing high to extreme MSR and SSR levels under a warmer climate. This is particularly true in June and July, but increases in the area under extreme fire danger (and therefore greatest fire potential) are common to all months. Significantly, two to three-fold increases are projected for Russia during the June-July period.

Although hampered somewhat by coarse spatial and temporal resolution, the four GCMs utilized in this study show similar increases in fire danger levels across much of west-central Canada and Siberia under a warmer climate. While shifts in forest types associated with climate change were not considered in this analysis, these increases in fire danger alone will almost certainly translate into increased fire activity, and, as fire management agencies currently operate with little or no margin for error, into large increases in area burned. The result will be more frequent and severe fires, shorter fire return intervals, a skewing of forest age class distribution towards younger stands, and a resultant decrease in the carbon storage of northern forests (cf. Kurz et al., 1995).

A warmer climate, in combination with severe economic constraints and infrastructure downsizing, will decrease the effectiveness, and thus the area protected, by fire management agencies. This then means that a new reality in forest fire impacts is on the horizon. There is a strong need to continue modelling future climates, using higher-resolution models as they become available, so that future development of long-range early warning systems and fire management planning can be accomplished in the most informed manner possible.

Assessing impacts of climate change and human population growth on forest fire potential in the tropics

With growing population pressure and accelerating change of land use in tropical vegetation — i.e., conversion of tropical forested ecosystems into farming and pastoral ecosystems — fire is being used increasingly. While certain tropical dry forests and savannas have been adapted to anthropogenic fire use for millennia and show typical features of sustainable fire ecosystems, the opening and fragmentation of tropical evergreen forests has increased the risk of wildfires that will have destructive impacts on biodiversity and sustainability of these forest ecosystems.

An assessment of potential impacts of climate change on fire regimes in the tropics based on GCMs and a GCM-derived lightning model (Goldammer and Price, 1997) recently concluded that there is a high degree of certainty that land use and climate features under conditions of a 2xCO2 atmosphere will influence tropical fire regimes.

In this respect, tropical closed evergreen forests will become increasingly subjected to high wildfire risk because of land-use changes (opening and fragmentation of closed forest by logging and conversion), increasing fire sources (use of fire as land clearing tool), and climate change (prolongation of dry seasons, increasing occurrence of extreme droughts, increase of lightning as fire source). Tropical dry forests and savannas in regions with predicted reduction of average total annual precipitation and average prolongation of dry seasons will be subjected to higher fire risk. However, the reduction of net primary production (NPP) and the increasing impacts of farming and grazing systems will lead to formation of open and sparse vegetation cover with restricted capability to support the spread of fires (discontinuity of fuelbed).

Tropical dry forests and savannas in regions with a predicted increase of average total annual precipitation and average reduction of dry season length will be subjected to higher fire risk due to the fact that increased NPP will lead to the build-up of more continuous fuelbeds that may carry more frequent and larger-sized wildfires.

Long-range forecasting of fire potential: conclusions

The models and assumptions described in this section clearly exceed the time horizon of early warning systems. However, the Working Group strongly suggests that relevant follow-up processes, in conjunction with other international activities, programmes and agreements, will consider this extended time horizon. The disaster management community needs to be prepared for managing situations which, in the near future, may require the development of innovative technologies and the preparedness of administrations to accomplish tasks that may differ from today’s situation. While warning of potential disaster implies a high level of confidence, a second level, or alert level, with lower level of confidence is useful from the standpoint of strategic or contingency planning. This alert level is intended to convey the message that the potential for disaster has increased, but that actions would be limited to planning.

Towards A Global Wildland Fire Information System

A demonstration concept

One demonstration project is the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (CWFIS), developed by the Canadian Forest Service. The CWFIS is a hazard-specific national system envisioned as a prototype system that is adaptable to other countries. Establishing and linking a number of compatible national systems could provide the nucleus of a global fire information network. Following the conceptual design of CWFIS, future early warning systems would have three goals:

  1. Facilitate information sharing among all agencies through a national network.
  2. Facilitate inter-agency sharing of resources by providing national fire information.
  3. Facilitate the application of fire research results through an interoperable platform.

The CWFIS incorporates several functions: weather observations, weather forecasts, fire danger, fire behaviour, fire activity, resource status, situation reports, decision support systems, technology transfer, and information exchange.

Weather observations

The system automatically downloads weather observations from a national satellite network. Although Canadian weather data are not mapped, exported systems (ASEAN, Florida) provide this capability. Data needed for daily fire-danger calculations are extracted from a larger set of hourly weather observations. Most countries operate national weather observing networks. The World Meteorological Organization maintains a global network of synoptic weather stations which is accessible through satellite downlinks. Nationally, research is underway to produce automated spot fire-weather forecasts using a Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS). When operational, users will be able to submit coordinates for a specific fire and obtain computer- generated hourly forecasts for that location.

Weather forecasts

At global and national scales, forecasts are important because large-scale mobilization requires one or more days to accomplish. The CWFIS accesses 3 days of numeric forecast data generated by the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC). In Florida, a Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS) is used to forecast weather on a finer scale than that available nationally. Many countries operate similar national weather forecasting systems. Alternatively, the CMC (or other major national agencies) can generate a numeric weather forecast for any region on earth (see also Fire Weather Forecasts section, above).

Fire danger

Weather data are transformed into components of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger-Rating System. Station data are converted to national contour maps with an ARC/INFO GIS processor. The maps are converted to GIF images and stored on a World-Wide Web server. Daily maps overwrite those from previous days and date indices are automatically updated. Fire-danger maps are retained for seven days to provide backup.

Fire behaviour

Digital fuel and topographic databases enable calculating absolute fire behaviour potential such as rate of spread, head-fire intensity, fuel consumption, and fire type. The CWFIS uses a 16-class satellite-derived land-cover classification to approximate a national fuel map which is not directly available. The fire-behaviour maps are in a cell format, reflecting the underlying fuel database. Satellite-based land cover classifications should be derivable for most countries. The system provides seven days of history, current observations, and three days of forecasts.

Fire activity

Fundamental to any fire information system is compiling and disseminating fire statistics such as number of fires and area burned. Although this currently requires manual reporting, tabulation, and graphing, it could be automated by having data entered directly into a remote database. A project has been proposed to develop an automated national satellite monitoring and mapping system for fires >200 ha. This system would transmit large-fire maps and associated statistics directly to the CWFIS for distribution via the web server (see also Global Fire Monitoring, below).

Resource status

It is important to continuously monitor the disposition of suppression resources. This includes the location and status of individual resources as well as potential availability for inter-agency mobilization. Manual systems are in place for monitoring resource status at agency and national levels; this information could be displayed by the CWFIS.

Situation reports

It is useful to provide public information on the status of individual fires on the world-wide web. Providing an alternate media access point reduces the workload of public information officials during fire emergencies. Nationally, an overall synopsis of the current situation and prognosis for the near future is useful for senior executives, policy analysts, and governments. Reports are prepared manually and distributed through the Internet.

Decision support systems

Decision-support systems (DSS) are often used for complex tasks, such as resource prepositioning, detection route planning, fire prioritization, and dispatch. Most agencies in Canada operate such systems.

Technology transfer

A web-based fire information system provides an interoperable platform to inform users about scientific results and technological developments. It also allows users to test and evaluate new systems. Accessibility through the web allows system developers to focus on underlying technology while avoiding system-specific idiosyncrasies. The CWFIS accomplishes this through a link to the Canadian Forest Service Fire Research Network, where emerging technologies such as hourly and seasonal fire growth models can be tested.

Information exchange

The most important aspect of the CWFIS may be its use as an example and a platform that enables fire management agencies to exchange information among themselves. The CWFIS also provides a national node that links individual fire agencies to the global fire community and vice versa. Similar national nodes in other countries could be linked readily to form a global forest fire information network. For example, FireNet (Australia) has proven invaluable as the principle server for a global fire community discussion group.

Canadian experience has shown that exchanging information among fire agencies is a precursor to developing mutual understanding. This, in turn, fosters agreements to exchange resources as no agency or nation can be an island unto itself in fire management. Prior inter-agency and intergovernmental agreements are the key to avoiding bureaucratic delays that can preclude effective resource exchanges. The process begins slowly and increases gradually as mutual trust develops among agencies. Implementing resource exchanges also fosters common standards for equipment and training; exchanging people fosters technology transfer. The overall result is enhanced fire management effectiveness and efficiency among all participants.

Global fire monitoring

It is currently technically feasible technically to use the described earth observation and information systems to collect, analyse and share information on wildfire throughout the world on a daily basis. The Monitoring of Tropical Vegetation Unit of the Space Applications Institute at the EC Joint Research Centre has been working on a global fire dataset based on the NOAA AVHRR products (Malingreau and Grégoire, 1996; Grégoire et al., 1996). The “Global Fire Product”, in its first phase, is generating a dataset for the 21 months of global daily coverage from April 1992 to December 1993. Because of the significance of the dataset for global change studies, the latest state-of-the art report was produced under the umbrella of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme Data and Information System (IGBP-DIS) (Malingreau and Justice, 1997).

Malingreau (1996) recently proposed the creation of the World Fire Web in which a network of centres with facilities to receive and process fire observation data from satellites, will be connected via the World Wide Web (WWW). Through the World Fire Web scientists, managers, and policy makers can have instant access to local, regional and world data; they can exchange experience, methods and trouble-shoot with each other. The World Fire Web, in conjunction with the space borne evaluation of vegetation dryness and fire-weather forecasts can provide a powerful early warning and disaster preparedness and management tool.

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Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)

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FAO Global Forest Assessment 2005 – Regional Fire Reports

As a supplement and complement to the Global Forest Resources Assessment, 2005, twelve regional reports published as Working Paper have been prepared by regional and country contributing authors to provide a greater depth of data and information on fire incidence, impact, and management issues relating to the twelve UN-ISDR Regional Wildland Fire Networks around the world. 

The working paper series assesses the fire situation in each wildland fire region, including the area extent, number and types of fires and their causes. The positive and negative social, economic and environmental impacts are outlined. Prediction, preparedness and prevention as key elements in reduction of the negative impacts of fire, rapid response to extinguish fire incidents and restoration following fires are addressed. The working paper series also addresses institutional capacity and capability in wildland fire management, including the roles and responsibilities of different stakeholder groups for prevention and suppression, particularly the unique role of community-based fire management.

From these working papers, FAO compiled a synthesis Fire Management Global Assessment 2006 (PDF, 1.9 MB)

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