Wildfire risk heightens this spring in western half of U.S from drought
13 April 2022
Published by: https://www.washingtonpost.com
USA – Southwestern states into the central and southern plains are the most concerning areas for fire risk this spring and early summer
Large swaths of the western and central United States are expected to see heightened wildfire risk this spring and summer because of ongoing severe drought and warmer- and drier-than-normal weather in the coming months, according to the latest outlooks compiled by the National Interagency Fire Center. Fire danger is already high in some regions as active weather patterns funnel dry winds over drought-stricken landscapes.
That risk is on display this week in the plains and southwestern states, where fierce winds have targeted parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, New Mexico, Colorado and Nebraska.
On Tuesday, the McBride Fire erupted near Ruidoso, N.M., burning 150 structures, burning over 4,000 acres, and forcing the evacuation of the northeastern part of the city. According to Todd Shoemake, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Albuquerque, the fire is burning in a forested area that had a drier than normal winter, with low snowpack and nearly nonexistent snow cover in the last six weeks.
A red flag warning for winds and low humidity remains in effect for the area until Wednesday evening.
Nick Nauslar, a fire meteorologist at the National Interagency Fire Center, said that the southwestern states and into the central and southern plains are the most concerning areas for fire risk this spring and early summer.
“They have all of the conditions aligning for an active couple of months for them,” he said.
On Tuesday, parts of the plains saw “extremely critical” weather conditions, with the Storm Prediction Center warning of the potential for a “dangerous fire weather outbreak.”
The winds kicked up a dust plume in Texas and fueled three new large fires in Texas and Oklahoma. Critical conditions are expected to continue on Wednesday, though the winds will be less extreme.
The region has seen multiple rounds of fire weather in recent weeks, related to storm systems that have spawned severe thunderstorms and tornadoes further east.
Much of western Texas, eastern New Mexico, and the Oklahoma panhandle is in extreme to exceptional drought — the two most severe categories of the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Great Plains could see its most significant drought in a decade
Brad Smith, a wildland fire analyst with the Texas A&M Forest Service, said that the seeds for this spring’s fire risk were actually planted last summer, when abundant rains grew a thick grass crop in the south and central Plains.
“In mid-August 2021, the rains quit, and they quit with an exclamation point,” he said. Drought has deepened and expanded since then, and vegetation is now parched.
Grass fires can move so quickly during high winds that they outpace the efforts of firefighters. In March, a fast-moving fire destroyed homes in rural areas near Fort Worth.
“You have really laid the foundation for extreme fires,” he said, noting that fire danger measurements were currently in rare territory. “All you need is that weather trigger.” He compared the strong winds expected this week to a Santa Ana wind event in Southern California — capable of fueling a serious wildfire outbreak.
Nauslar said that it has been a dry winter overall for much of the High Plains.
“Essentially, when we get to this time of year and there hasn’t been recent snow, it’s really easy for grass to ignite and spread fire quickly,” he said.
That includes in parts of Colorado, where elevated fire potential is predicted into July.
The threat of wind-driven fires is also expected to continue in the Southwest, a region that typically sees dry and windy weather in spring, with the fire season lasting well into summer.
“Near record-to-record amounts of fine fuels in southeast Arizona across sections of southern New Mexico into the eastern plains of New Mexico could lead to large upticks in wind driven fire activity this spring,” according to the National Interagency Fire Center’s outlook released April 1.
However, forecasters are optimistic that a robust monsoon will arrive this summer, bringing potentially heavy rain to the southwestern United States and ending the fire season there in July. But lightning during monsoon thunderstorms could ignite new wildfires in areas that see less rain. Such ignitions are most common along the northern and western fringes of the monsoon, where storms tend to be drier, including in Northern California.
On the West Coast, the risk for larger fires is forecast to increase in April in central Oregon and in May in Northern California.
California is bracing for another intense fire season following its driest January through March on record, along with well above normal temperatures during that period.
Snowpack is now down to just 22 percent of average for the date following a brief but intense heat wave last week.
California snowpack vastly depleted after record dry start to year
On Friday, the National Weather Service in Sacramento issued its earliest red flag warning on record, with vegetation flammability spiking to levels usually seen in July.
However, recent rain and snow, along with a wet pattern in the forecast, should put a pause on that trajectory. Nauslar said that forecasters are hopeful that an active weather pattern in April could delay the expected very early start to the fire season in Northern California.
But it’s unlikely that spring rains can make up for what was lost during the heart of the wet season, and the state is poised to enter the summer months still in significant drought.
“We typically see the western fire season progress from south to north and from east to west,” Nauslar said. “This year it looks like it is going to be earlier and more active than normal.”
