Central Coast’s wildland fire season to be “early, active” as drought, heat bakes area
0323 March 2022
Published by: https://santamariatimes.com
USA – With winter temperatures more like those of summer drying out rain-starved vegetation, fire officials are predicting the 2022 fire season will come early —some say it’s already here — with big fires statewide.
Los Padres National Forest fire officials were meeting this week to prepare for the wildfire season, and Andrew Madsen, public information officer for Los Padres, said the outlook isn’t good.
“We anticipate another extremely active wildfire season along the Central Coast and across the West,” Madsen said. “Weather models suggest that by June the potential for significant fire activity will be above normal across coastal areas.”
Capt. Daniel Bertucelli said the Santa Barbara County Fire Department is also expecting a fire season that will quickly challenge their resources.
“We don’t really know what the 2022 fire season will be like,” said Bertucelli, the department’s public information officer. “If we get some rain in the next month, it might hold [the season] off a month.
“But if we’re basing it on past experience, it’s safe to say we’re looking at a very early and active fire season,” he continued. “We’re anticipating large-scale fires up and down the state of California.”
The dearth of rain this season has amplified the latest drought that’s now in its third year among the Western states.
“The persistent drought conditions that have prevailed in Los Padres over the last decade were not moderated by our winter rainfall, and the live fuel moisture levels are now well above normal,” Madsen said.
As of March 17, the U.S. Drought Monitor classified both Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties in “severe drought” conditions.
The Drought Monitor listed the Central Coast among the regions that have “experienced record dryness since the start of 2022, which has driven some reservoirs to record low levels and resulted in widespread stream flows and soil moisture ranking below the 2nd percentile.”
John Lindsey, meteorologist for Pacific Gas and Electric Co., said January, February and March represent the driest start to a new year on record for the Central Coast.
“When it doesn’t rain in the wintertime, it makes for a very challenging summer and fall,” Bertucelli said. “Mother Nature has not really been helping us out.”
Fire officials were hoping for a wet winter when December rains soaked the Central Coast, but then “the spigot was turned off.”
“The reality is, other than that one month of January, after the December rains, we’ve been in fire season all year,” Bertucelli said.
A brief respite from dry weather may be on the way after this weekend.
Lindsey said a low-pressure system and associated cold front are expected to move through Sunday and Monday, bringing between 0.75 and 1.25 inches of rain.
“Remember, this is a long-range forecast and will probably change, but it is the first credible indication of significant rain for 2022,” he said Tuesday.
Still, it will have little to no impact on the Central Coast’s thirst for rain, which is likely being held off by the current La Niña, a condition of cooler than average surface seawater near the equator.
“Overall, moderate or strong La Niña conditions typically produce lower-than-average winter rainfall,” Lindsey said, explaining they tend to drive the storm track, carried by upper-level winds, into the Pacific Northwest and bypass the Central Coast.
He noted the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center expects La Niña will go all the way into August, with up to a 50% chance of continuing into the fall.
Exacerbating the lack of rainfall, recent high temperatures are drying out vegetation that put on a burst of growth after December’s rains.
Since January, virtually every area of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties has set a high temperature record at some point.
“I mean, here it is March 22 and it’s going to be 83 degrees at the beaches today,” Bertucelli said.
The combined effect of no rainfall and continuing high temperatures has already manifest itself locally.
“The Hollister fire this month burned as it typically would in July,” Bertucelli noted.
All of this points to the need for the public to be especially cautious with fire and to clear defensible spaces around their homes and businesses in the wildland interface, fire officials said.
“As we move into this wildfire season, it’s important to recognize that more than 90% of wildfires are human-caused,” Madsen said. “We ask the public, as we do each year, to exercise the utmost caution when recreating on the national forest.”
